EME Macro/Strategy: Turkey – resilient growth in the face of higher rates
Economic activity has continued to expand in the second half of this year, beyond our expectations, remaining on track for 4%+ growth this year. The composition of growth has been, so far, supported by robust private consumption and brisk investment spending, but this will change next year, to the detriment of investment, with a less accommodative monetary stance and an absence of extensive government support. This should also restrict imports, in our view, limiting the drag from net exports, keeping real GDP growth close to 4%. The downside risks for our view stem from a stagnating Eurozone and/or if borrowing costs, by the Fed or the ECB, fail to come down as we expect, which would amplify the downturn in global growth.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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