Report
Alessio Chiesa ...
  • Raffaella Tenconi

EME Macro/Strategy: Ukraine – a macro primer

In the context of the peace agreement that is being negotiated by the US between Ukraine and Russia, we present an overview of the state of the Ukrainian economy. From a business-cycle perspective, GDP growth has rebounded after the sharp contraction in 2022 and is expanding currently at a pace that is comparable to that of Poland. If lasting peace is achieved, we would expect the pace of growth to rise materially, and plausibly double on a sustainable basis, as the rebuilding starts. Inflation is high structurally, worsened by the war, and it is likely to remain a challenge for Ukraine, going forward, in our view. War-related reconstruction financing needs have surged over the past year and are now estimated at approximately half a trillion USD. This report should also be read alongside our forthcoming strategy publication on the macroeconomic and market implications of a potential Ukraine-Russia truce. The impact of such a deal would be likely to extend across the global macro and equity markets for decades, shaping long-term investment trends well into the 2030s, in our view.
Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Alessio Chiesa

Raffaella Tenconi

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