EME Macro/Strategy: Ukraine – business cycle and policy outlook – 2021E
The economy continued to recover gradually in the final quarter of 2020, with the GDP contracting at a much milder annual pace in the second half of the year, thanks to a recovery in domestic consumption.According to the preliminary estimate, the GDP contracted by 0.7% yoy in 4Q20, after -3.5% in 3Q20, and better than the 0.9% consensus expected. Towards the end of the year, we saw an improvement in many surveys. Industrial production increased in December, driven by manufacturing, by 4.8%, after 14 months of declines. On the consumption front, retail sales increased by 13.4% in December, with a recovery in real wages gains in the October-November period. On the other hand, consumer confidence moved sideways, highlighting that consumers were yet not optimistic about 2021E.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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