EME Macro/Strategy: Vulnerabilities and strengths ahead
In this report, we sketch the anatomy of the mechanisms that are likely to trigger the next global recession. As we have said before, a recession cannot be delayed forever: exceptionally active monetary policies have delayed the end of the business cycle, while the coronavirus has brought new challenges in the near term. There are three scenarios we see from here: the European coronavirus epicentre remains in Italy, with genuinely limited episodes elsewhere; a broader outbreak in Europe is contained by April-May; or a full-scale epidemic is witnessed, without an effective vaccine/containment before the year-end. In our view: the first scenario appears the least probable; the second scenario is reasonable, with an optimistic tone; while the third may be erring on the aggressive side, but should considered very seriously, even so.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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