Report
Pawel Wieprzowski, PhD

EME Strategy: Saudi Aramco IPO = USD 1-4bn outflows from EME

The preparations for what has been heralded as the largest IPO in history, Saudi Aramco’s listing, has started. If the stock is added to the MSCI EM index, it could result in significant outflows from EME, ranging from USD 1-4bn, according to our estimates. In our previous research report on the potential impact of the inclusion of Saudi Aramco in the MSCI EM index, published on 15 June 2018, we noted that, depending on Saudi Aramco’s MCap (a USD 1-2trn range, provided by the FTSE in 2018) and assuming a free float (FF) of 5%, the company’s inclusion in the MSCI EM index could result in USD 0.9-1.8bn of outflows from the EME region. However, recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Saudi Royal Court and its advisors are considering placing a 10% stake. Therefore, we have decided to update our estimates of the potential fund flows, and we present three scenarios depending on Saudi Aramco’s FF and MCap.
Provider
Wood and Company
Wood and Company

WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.

A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.

Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.

We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.

Analysts
Pawel Wieprzowski, PhD

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