Emerging Europe Refining: Repeats now showing (TUPRS, ELPE, LTS and NIS upgraded to BUY; MOL & MOH stay BUY; PKN stays HOLD)
In this report, we put forward our view that the refining sector is due for a revival in fortunes after a temporary setback, which has seen refining margins squeezed by a combination of seasonal demand weakness and rising crude oil prices. We see strong demand, the product of accelerating global growth; a sector that has not yet reached the over-investment part of the cycle; and capacity utilisations that have little room for upward movement. With share prices well below their peaks, we believe that investors have a second chance of partaking in a sector rally, albeit not quite as earth shattering as the first one. We upgrade Tupras (12M PT TRY 146.6, 23.7% upside), Hellenic Petroleum (12M PT EUR 10.15, 22.3% upside), Lotos (12M PT PLN 69.2, 29.9% upside) and NIS (12M PT RSD 864, 21% upside) to BUYs from Holds, and maintain our BUY ratings on MOL (12M PT HUF 3,591, 29.6% upside) and Motor Oil Hellas (12M PT EUR 22.8, 24.9% upside), and our HOLD rating on PKN Orlen (12M PT PLN 106.3, 14.3% upside).Autohellas is a Hertz national franchisee. Co. is engaged in the rent-a-car segment, comprising of renting (short-term lease) and fleet management (long-term lease and fleet management) in Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro. Renting covers the needs of both individuals and companies for occasional, small duration rentals up to 1 year long.
Grupa Lotos is an oil concern which deals with oil extraction and processing and trading of high quality oil products. Co. supplies the market with, unleaded petrol, diesel oil, fuel oil, aviation fuel, industrial oil, asphalt and paraffin, among other things. Co. is engaged in the production and sales of engine oils and bitumen in Poland. Co. maintains oil exploration and production activities in the Baltic, North Sea and Norwegian Sea and operates three refineries in Gdansk, Jaslo and Czechowice, Poland. Co. markets its products in wholesale markets, as well as in retail markets through a network of petrol stations.
Hellenic Petroleum operates in the energy sector predominantly in Greece and the Balkans. Co.'s main activities include: refining and marketing of oil products ("R&M"); exploration, development and production, of hydrocarbons ("E&P"); manufacturing and marketing of petrochemical products; and power generation and trading. Refining, supply and trading are Co.'s core business and its main source of income and profit. Retail trading activities are split into domestic, comprising Co.'s Greek subsidiaries EKO and Hellenic Fuels, and International through local in-market retail subsidiary companies. Hydrocarbon exploration and production (E&P) Co. activities relate to Greece and abroad.
Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen's activities are divided into three main business segments: the Refining Segment that comprises crude oil processing as well as wholesale and retail trade in refinery products. The Petrochemical Segment that encompasses production and sale of petrochemicals and chemicals. The Retail Segment that comprises of sales at petrol stations. Co.'s basic products include gasolines, diesel oils, light heating oil, Jet fuel, liquid gas, polyetylene, polypropylene, benzene, butadiene, acetone, phenol, glycols, toluen, ortoxylene.
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri is an energy and refining company based in Turkey. Co. is engaged in providing and refining crude oil, the importing and exporting of oil products, and establishing and operating refineries in Turkey and foreign countries. Also, Co. is establishing and operating factories and facilities in the petrochemical industry. Co. is engaged in purchasing, selling, importing, exporting, storing, marketing and distributing (wholesale, retail, foreign and domestic) all kinds of petroleum products, LPG and natural gas. Co. runs its business through the refineries in Izmit, Izmir, Kirikkale and Batman.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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