HansaMatrix: Shortages crimp top line; but down, not out (stays BUY)

We have updated our earnings outlook for HansaMatrix, to reflect: 1) the ongoing shortage of semiconductors, due to increased market demand; and 2) about a one-year delay in the rollout of the LightSpace 3D AR headsets, cutting our 2021-23E revenues by c.20% and our 2022-23E EBITDA by c.16%. Regardless, rolling over our DCF, we have increased our 12M price target (PT) to EUR 11.12/share, or by 8%, offering upside of 18%. Earlier this month, the company warned that the availability of components would limit order deliveries, apparently for another two-to-three quarters, before the market returns to equilibrium. The result, we estimate, will be roughly flat 2021E revenues yoy and margin compression in 2H21E, as the unusually profitable sales mix of the first half shifts to a more typical one. Travel and social distancing restrictions have also pushed the deliveries of the first LightSpace headsets into mid-2022E; nonetheless, we still expect to see 2020-24E EBITDA and normalised net profit of CAGRs of 15% and 49%, respectively, which is only partly in the share price, in our view. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.