InPost: international level (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY on InPost, with our price target (PT) upped to EUR 18.5/share (from EUR 13.3). Over the past three months, InPost’s share price has dropped by 14%, 20ppts below the WIG20 index, folding under the pressure of the negative PR from Allegro and the continuing weakness of the Polish consumer. We see the continuation of the cooperation between Poland’s leading marketplace and logistics operator as serving the best interests of both. We assume that the parties will meet midway, and agree to continue their cooperation, splitting the PLN 300m pricing premium. We also expect InPost to compensate for this with sales to other players in Poland, and the acceleration of its foreign expansion. Following the Yodel acquisition, we expect the international markets to exceed 50% of total sales this year. Increasing our 2025-7E EBITDA forecasts by 8-17%, we expect InPost to deliver a 2025-27E EBITDA CAGR of 19%, a notch above Amazon and Allegro, and visibly above the couriers. In this light, we see InPost’s EV/EBITDAs, at double-digit discounts to the key e-commerce peers and close to UPS, as an attractive entry point.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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