InPost: not there yet (stays BUY)
We maintain our BUY rating on InPost, with our price target (PT) upped to EUR 13.3/share (from EUR 8.5). InPost continues to outperform its competitors on all its key markets, while using its pricing power to improve its profitability in Poland, where c.90% of its total EBITDA is generated. Moreover, LPP and Allegro’s trading updates confirmed our view that easing food inflation should allow discretionary sales to return to a growth path. Simultaneously, the Menzies deal has unlocked the potential for volumes acceleration in the UK (up 86% since the cooperation started), paving the way for the long-awaited breakeven, in 4Q23E. At this stage, we see only Mondial Relay missing our expectations, but we see it as more of a cyclical than a secular issue. Overall, increasing our 2023-5E EBITDA forecasts by 5-7%, we expect InPost to deliver a 2022-25E EBITDA CAGR of 26%, spot on Allegro, a notch below Amazon, and visibly above the stagnant couriers and postal operators. In this light, we see InPost’s 2024E EV/EBITDA of 9x, not only 20%+ below Allegro and Amazon, but also 7% below UPS, as still an attractive entry point.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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