InPost: You only live twice (HOLD - initiation of coverage)
We initiate coverage of InPost with a HOLD recommendation and a price target (PT) of EUR 16.3/share. The company is the key logistics provider for the rapidly-growing e-commerce sector in Poland, with its offer combining low cost with convenience, flexibility and a low carbon footprint. We estimate that every third parcel in Poland in 2020 went through InPost’s network of 11k autonomous parcel machines (APM) and to-door couriers. InPost has flourished in a symbiotic relationship with Allegro, delivering 2017-20 sales and EBITDA CAGRs of 73% and 278%, respectively. Consultant OC&C forecasts a 2020-24E CAGR for Polish e-commerce of 13%. Against this, with InPost’s growth forecast of 16% for the addressable domestic courier, express and parcel (CEP) market, and its foreign expansion plans, supported by the acquisition of Mondial Relay, we expect InPost to see 2020-23E sales and EBITDA CAGRs of 48% and 30%, respectively. In light of these strong prospects, at our EV/EBITDAs of 27x for 2021E and 20x for 2022E, close to the e-commerce median and at discounts to Allegro, we consider its valuation to be justified. Leveraging the volume growth on Amazon’s entry into Poland, and its own e-grocery project, provide the key upsides to our numbers.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.