KAZ Minerals: More growth from Aktogay expansion (stays BUY)
Yesterday (21 December), we initiated coverage of KAZ with a BUY and a GBp 973/share price target (PT). However, within minutes of our report being published, the company announced an expansion to Aktogay, which will the double sulphide processing capacity for USD 1.2bn. This will add 80ktpa to production from 2022-27E and 60ktpa thereafter as the increased processing volumes will hasten the grade decline, which was already expected in the mine plan. The expansion would reduce the mine life from over 50 years to 28 years, making the mine plan far more efficient and NPV accretive. As a result, we increase our PT by 3% to GBp 1,002/share and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
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