MONETA Money Bank: priced for perfection, but needs to deliver (stays HOLD)

We have increased our 12M price target (PT) for MONETA Money Bank to CZK 149.4/share (from CZK 116.2/share), while we keep our HOLD rating on the stock, due to its dividend angle. However, with a 2025E P/E and P/BV of 11.4x and 2.2x, respectively, we see its valuation as full, with no room for a multiples rerating, and we consider MONETA as one of our least preferred names in the CE3 banking space. On the one side, if there is any issue with the bank’s equity story, e.g., political risks after the autumn 2025 elections, or some M&A activity that creates uncertainties over the relative valuation between MONETA and a potential M&A target, we could see a risk of some profit taking at the current price levels. However, on the other side, should these risks not materialise, we see a potential management guidance upgrade on the horizon for 2025E (we are 9% ahead of its current guidance), and we also see some potential for a premium dividend. While our current forecasts reflect a 90% dividend payout from the 2025E net profit, with the dividend yield at c.8% in the next 12 months, we would not exclude management pursuing an extra dividend, paying out part of the CZK 4.65bn surplus Tier 1 capital, just as it did in 4Q24, when the GM voted through a CZK 3/share extra dividend, paid out towards the end of last year.