Ozon: Ecosystem or retailer? (BUY - initiation of coverage)
We initiate coverage of Ozon with a BUY recommendation and a USD 71 price target (PT), which offers 22% upside from the current share price. Given the company’s competitive advantage in logistics and strengthening network effects, we believe that Ozon offers an attractive opportunity to bet on one of the market leaders of Russian e-commerce. We project Ozon to break even in 2024E, reaching a 1.6% adjusted EBITDA margin (as a percentage of GMV), expanding to 6.1% by 2030E. Ozon trades at 1.1x EV/GMV on our 2022E estimate, vs. 1.4x EV/GMV for Allegro, based on WOOD’s estimates, and at 2.9x EV/sales on our 2022E estimate, vs. 4.7x its for e-commerce global peers, on the consensus.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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