QIWI: The play that goes wrong (stays BUY)
QIWI has been caught up in a perfect storm of falling local currency, likely economic recession and a ban on most sporting events, which will affect its core earnings driver for at least a quarter. We have reduced our sales estimates by 34% and 22% for FY20E and FY21E, respectively, and cut our EBITDA and EPS estimates by -50%/-27% and -52%/-26%, respectively, for FY20E and FY21E. As a result, we have reduced our price target (PT) from USD 33 to USD 21, but we still keep our BUY rating on the stock, as the actual share price has dropped 44% in March 2020 mtd and offers 114% upside to our PT. QIWI is trading at 8.5x and 4.6x P/Es, based on our FY20-21E estimates.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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