WOOD Flash – Richter: our first thoughts on the Estelle impact – not a game-changer
Based on Richter and Mithra’s guidance for Mithra’s novel oral contraceptive (OC) Estelle, we would value the franchise at around HUF 130/share for Richter – upside of c.2.5% from the current levels – assuming peak sales on EUR 50-70m and a royalty rate of 10-15%. At peak sales of c.EUR 100m, we would assume a HUF 200-220/share value for the drug, rising to around c.HUF 750/share at peak sales of EUR 350m. Our gut feeling, however, is that peak sales north of c.EUR 200m (c.HUF 400/share, or upside of c.7%) are rather unlikely in an environment where younger patients in developed markets are rather turning away from oral contraceptives to IUDs or barrier methods. This said, it is positive that Richter will be involved in the launch of a novel oral contraceptive, which should breathe some new life into Richter’s OC business, in our view, where the company’s global revenues over the past five years have stagnated at EUR 280-290m annually. We remain HOLDers of the stock.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.