Shoper: shifting into a higher gear (upgraded to BUY)
We have upgraded Shoper to BUY (from Hold). Our new 12M price target (PT) of PLN 52.6 (+44%) offers 25% potential upside. 1Q24 finally delivered the anticipated growth acceleration, with GMV Stores rising by 15% yoy (recurrent basis), also boosted by the home.pl consolidation. This implies a solid outperformance not only vs. the broader Polish e-commerce market, but also Allegro and Shopify. What is important, in our view, is that the growth acceleration was accompanied by a slight yoy profitability improvement, reflecting moderate headcount increases and more limited salary pressure than a year ago. With the expected e-commerce market growth acceleration in 2H24E, improving Shoper’s take rate (to be supported by the rising penetration of the home.pl merchants) and a further, gradual profitability improvement, we forecast a strong three-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 27%, 9ppts above the peers’ median.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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