WOOD Flash – TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call

TBC has announced GEL 335m in net income for 4Q24. Before the one-off write-down of its Azerbaijan business, which is now held for sale, the net income stood at GEL 344m. The net income consensus was at GEL 325m (a 3% beat in reported and a 6% beat in adjusted terms), while our forecast was at GEL 317m (a 6% beat in reported and an 8% beat in adjusted terms). The beat was related mainly to the trading income (up 64% yoy in 4Q and +37% yoy in 12M24), as well as the somewhat lower than expected COR (GEL 7m). The stock closed 8% higher yesterday (12 February). Although we do not see anything wrong with the 4Q24 results, we also do not see them as a strong enough catalyst for the market’s reaction, on their own. We also note that the bank reiterated its group level GEL 1.5bn net income guidance for 2025E, and its GEL 200m+ 2025E net income guidance for the Uzbekistan business. It is not implausible that the market is playing a possible peace deal between Russia-Ukraine through Georgian stocks (BGEO stock also closed yesterday 4% higher). We rate TBC a BUY, with a GBP 38.0/share PT. TBC is trading at 1.3x P/TBV and 5.5x P/E, on our 2025E estimates.