Tupras: jet propelled (stays BUY)

We maintain our BUY on Tupras, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of TRY 328.0 (from TRY 276.0), offering 28.6% upside. Refining margins were above the mid-cycle averages at the beginning of this year, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has added an entirely new dimension to the business. Based on the assumption that the closure will not be prolonged, we still see the WOOD benchmark margin averaging USD 16.1bbl in 2026E, from USD 12.6/bbl in 2025. Up to 20% of Tupras’ production is jet fuel, the product with the biggest shortage, potentially a huge windfall. Tupras has fewer risks in terms of crude supply than most of its peers, and it should maintain its high capacity utilisation, in our view. The Turkish market continues to grow steadily, shifting petrol sales from export to domestic. We expect investments of TRY 24.1bn, on average, for the 2026E to 2030E period. Tupras’ dividend policy, which distributes 80% of its net income, could see a yield of 20% from the 2026E earnings, on our estimates. We expect an EV/EBITDA of 2.3x for 2026E, vs. 4.1x for its peers, on our estimates.