Turkey Strategy: Kahramanmaras earthquake – the aftermath

Our condolences for those who have lost their loved ones, and we pray for the swift rescue of the remaining victims and a speedy recovery for those injured.
In this report, we aim to provide an early assessment of the damage caused by the recent series of earthquakes in Turkey (dubbed the Kahramanmaras earthquake, due to its initial epicentre), affecting 10 provinces in South-Eastern Turkey, as well as North-Western Syria. At 04:17 local time on Monday (6 February), a major earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.7, struck the region, and the tremors were felt as far as Israel and Lebanon. This was followed by another major quake, with a magnitude of 7.6, at 13:24 on 6 February, 95km north of the initial epicentre, and hundreds of other aftershocks (some as big as 6.5 on the scale) over the next 48 hours. Although seven quakes with a magnitude of +7.0 have struck Turkey in the past 25 years (with the largest being the 1999 Marmara earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.4), according USGS, Monday’s quake was the strongest tremor in Turkey since 1939 and one of the largest in the Eastern Mediterranean region since the 1900s. That the recent earthquake was a “strike slip” type tremor, causing horizontal (rather than vertical) movement over a 180km fault line (hence its relatively shallow depth), has amplified its impact, magnifying the damage it has caused in the 10 provinces where 16% of the population lives. Among the affected cities, Kahramanmaras, Hatay, Malatya, and Sanliurfa were the worst hit. As of 08:30 on 10 February, the Turkish government updated the number of casualties as 18k dead and 74k wounded (WHO estimates that the death toll may cross 20k). Following the disaster, the Erdogan government mobilised civilian and military rescue teams, appealed for international assistance (more than 50 countries have sent rescue teams) and declared a three-month “Emergency Rule” in the 10 affected provinces. In an unprecedented decision (8 February), Borsa Istanbul suspended trading until 15 February, following the 19% losses in the main index after the earthquake.