VIGO Photonics: top Polish defence industry exposure (downgraded to HOLD)
We have downgraded our rating on VIGO Photonics to HOLD (from Buy) and set our price target (PT) at PLN 584/share, implying 10% upside potential. We see VIGO, with its unique technology, applicable to military products, as the best exposure to the global defence spending surge among the relevant Polish stocks, especially in the face of the recently-signed agreement with the Polish army for the delivery of infrared arrays. However, due to the growing dependence of VIGO’s equity story on new initiatives (especially HyperPIC), we see the name becoming an option-like investment with a long-term (potentially significant, but uncertain) return. In the meantime, we expect VIGO to deliver solid organic growth (a 24% 2024-27E sales CAGR and a 93% adjusted EBITDA CAGR), but the reported results might be harmed by the HyperPIC R&D expenses, causing a negative bottom line in 2025-26E. On our estimates, VIGO is trading at 2026-27E adjusted EV/EBITDAs of 19.4-10.8x, at 77-15% premiums vs. its peers.Vigo System SA is a Poland-based company engaged in the production of detectors business sector. The Company is a manufacturer of standard and customized High Operating Temperature cadmium mercury telluride (HgCdTe) detectors. The Company's products are divided into three categories, including Infrared Detectors, Infrared Cameras and Measurement Equipment. The Company sells its products worldwide, including the United States, Canada, Finland and Australia, among others. It also cooperates and sells the products to NASA.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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