WOOD Flash – CIS+ macro: on the ground in Central Asia – reform stories enter the next phase

In the second half of October, we had another extensive roadshow across Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Overall, our takes resonate with our visits earlier this year. The visit offered a timely opportunity to take stock of two economies that remain among the fastest-growing in our regional universe, but which are now entering different phases of their policy cycles. In Uzbekistan, the reform momentum remains broadly positive – growth is strong, institutions are modernising gradually, and investor engagement is deepening – but the pace and depth of the transformation continue to vary across sectors. In Kazakhstan, meanwhile, macro conditions remain robust, but policy is shifting from stimulus toward stabilisation, as the authorities seek to contain inflation and anchor expectations without derailing growth. Uzbekistan stands out for its structural ambition – from tariff reform, to the upcoming planned SOEs IPOs, such as UzNIF, which is highlighted currently in the presidential decrees as targeting 1H26E, while Kazakhstan – running a 3-4% output gap currently – needs to demonstrate fiscal discipline, and the pipeline of implemented measures shows an honest, humble effort to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy.