WOOD Flash – Czech Republic macro: rebounding and reflecting
The sentiment surveys for May showed the recovery is broadening, including among consumers, which had been somewhat weary up until March. The overall economic sentiment index released by the European Commission rose by 4.8 points over the month, close to the level reached before the COVID-19 epidemic began in 2020. Our new real GDP models, based on these surveys, confirm upside for the recovery this year, relative to what the CNB is projecting, and scope for a robust acceleration from 2022E-onwards. The MPC has made it clear that it will start a small tightening cycle soon, which we expect to be 75bps cumulatively; by itself, this should not slow down the recovery materially. The uncertainty surrounding the fiscal outlook is greater, as the October general elections will see an intense fight and, if the current opposition wins, tightening fiscal policy as a first mandate may be an unpleasant task.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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