WOOD Flash – Europe macro: March brings good news for inflation and one red alert
The European Commission has released its extensive sentiment survey for March, which captures the SVB and CS fallout, in part. Three core messages stand out. First, the upturn in economic momentum that began in 4Q22 continued in March, underpinned especially by consumers and the industrial sector, but it has decelerated visibly in pace. Secondly, the deceleration of inflation is advancing and broadening. Thirdly, a clear red alert has appeared in the overvalued housing markets of the Eurozone: chiefly Germany and, to a much lesser extent, France. The data, overall, support our expectations that the CE4 and Greece stand out as more resilient, but not immune, to the deceleration in the developed economies. Overall, these results already argue strongly that the monetary tightening should come to an end.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
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