WOOD Flash – Europe macro: no surprises from the ECB
The Governing Council at the ECB decided to raise the key interest rates by 50bps at its meeting yesterday (2 February) and communicated a similar move for the next meeting in March. With this, the refinancing rate was raised to 3.00%, while the deposit rate was lifted to 2.50%. The three upcoming inflation reports, ahead of the meeting in May, remain key in determining whether the refinancing rate will terminate at 3.50% or 4.00%; however, we see a final 25bps increase in May as plausible, taking the refinancing rate to 3.75%. For end-2024E, we see scope for the refinancing rate being reduced to 3.00%. The operational details for quantitative tightening (QT) were also announced, which did not come as a surprise and were broadly in line with our expectations.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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