WOOD Flash – Eurozone macro: some thoughts on the EU-US agreement
We interpret the recent EU-US agreement as a strategic compromise by the EU, which is suboptimal, but is probably the least damaging, among a narrow set of poor alternatives. Confronted with few viable options, the EU appears to have chosen a swift resolution to avoid escalation, whether on tariffs or the broader geopolitical front. The specific references of the EU Commissioners to Ukraine, on 28 July, highlight that the situation there had some sort of direct or indirect impact in setting up the deal in its current form. The emphasis on speed over substance appears to reflect Germany’s priority, potentially as part of a broader quid pro quo tied to its acceptance of a higher MFF proposal.
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