WOOD Flash – Kazakhstan macro: constitutional reform lays groundwork for succession planning

Yesterday (15 March), Kazakhstan voted on a new constitution, proposed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev last September. The early results indicate around 87% support (with the voter turnout at 73.24%), broadly in line with the pre-referendum polling (close to 90%), making the outcome largely expected, in a not very competitive election. While the constitutional package is broad and, as with most structural reforms, includes both positive and controversial elements, the key implication lies elsewhere, in our view. Several of the proposed changes appear to be aimed primarily at re-engineering Kazakhstan’s political architecture, ahead of the next succession cycle. President Tokayev has pledged to step down in 2029, under the single-term presidential rule, which was introduced in 2022. While adopting a new constitution, theoretically, opens the possibility of resetting the presidential term limits, this remains uncertain. In our view, the reform could help to prepare the institutional framework for a managed succession through the introduction of a vice-presidential role. For now, however, the most likely outcome remains policy continuity: relatively strong growth, supported by quasi-fiscal stimulus and “national projects”, alongside tight monetary policy, aimed at bringing inflation down gradually. However, the reform matters, in our view, as the presidential administration remains highly influential in shaping the economic policy mix, making the eventual choice of vice-president an important signal for the future policy direction.