WOOD Flash – Poland macro: 2019 Polish parliamentary elections – PiS may still have the majority

Poland is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 13 October and, according to recent forecasts, the currently ruling party – PiS (Law and Justice) – has a good chance of keeping the absolute majority in parliament for the next term. The election takes place against a background of sustained strong economic expansion, accompanied by both disputes over the direction of social policy and tensions with the European Commissions. Over the past few years, the EU Commission and the PiS government have been clashing over reforms in Poland that the Commission believes could impair the independence of the judiciary system, a chapter that is still open and under discussion. In this flash note, we go through the impact of the election proposals of PiS, the most likely winner of the elections, on the Polish economy. Overall, we remain constructive on Poland, with most of the effects of these measures discounted already in our current outlook. Nonetheless, even if the proposals are supportive of domestic consumption in the coming one-to-three years, some measures – such as the substantial minimum wage increase – in a four-to-five year horizon, pose a risk of damaging Poland’s competitiveness, in our view.