WOOD Flash – Poland macro: forecasts under the spotlight
Over the past three months, the 2019E consensus GDP forecast for Poland has increased, from 4.0% in May to 4.2% in July, converging with our forecast of 4.4%. In contrast with this trend, the most recent June data showed downside surprises – below the consensus – for many key indicators (such as industrial production, retail sales, and wage growth). While, on the one hand, this could be a consequence of the slowdown in Germany; on the other, the June industrial production result (-2.7% vs. the 2% consensus) was also influenced by calendar effects, and the latest June ESI surveys showed stable business confidence, with improvements in hiring appetite and consumer confidence. Weighting these elements, we keep our GDP forecast unchanged, but we note the slight downward risk for our projections. Importantly, the latest releases strengthen our view that there will be virtually no grounds for the MPC to raise interest rates in the coming 24 months.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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