WOOD Flash – Poland macro: MPC begins easing with a bang!
Yesterday (6 September), the Monetary Council reduced the reference rate by a surprising 75bps, to 6.00%, bolder than the 25bps that both we and the consensus were expecting. As usual, the statement held back from providing guidance on the next moves, but President Glapinski’s press conference today (7 September) should provide more colour on what the future might hold. We see more above-standard rate cuts as plausible at the next meeting, which falls days before the elections, to be held on 15 October. We revise our guidance for the policy rate in 2024E lower, by 100bps, from 5% to 4%. We see it as likely that the next MPC decisions will see sizeable rate cuts. We also revise down our guidance for the 10-year bond yield to 4% and for the PLN to 4.7 against the EUR.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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