WOOD Flash – Poland macro: October sentiment surveys confirm weak growth patch
The October sentiment surveys released by the European Commission confirmed what the local surveys had suggested already: there was no material improvement in October in either the business sector or among consumers. These results, together with the weak retail sales result in September, argue strongly in favour of lower interest rates, and the sooner the better from a growth perspective. Our GDP growth estimate of 3% this year faces downside risks, and we expect the NBP to reduce its GDP and inflation forecasts in the upcoming November Inflation Report. On a positive note, hiring appetite has rebounded and labour shortages remain widespread, which should keep the unemployment rate at a very low level, allowing for consumption to recover once interest rates fall to or below the neutral rate next year.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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