WOOD Flash - Romania macro: the NBR steps up the tightening cycle
At its meeting yesterday (9 February), the Board of the National Bank of Romania stepped up the pace of the tightening cycle, and raised the policy rate by 50bp, to 2.50%. The move was in line with our expectations, but above the consensus for a 25bp rise. The statement conveyed a restrained tone and stopped short of providing any material guidance on future moves. In our view, the MPC remains bound by the lagging labour market: however, the worsening inflation picture, alongside the growing divergence with the other regional Central Banks, should continue to drive the policy rate higher. Looking ahead, we expect to see the policy rate at 4.00% by the end of this year and 4.50% by end-2023E, with further upside risks for both years.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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