WOOD Flash – Turkey macro: caution is warranted
The first estimate of GDP for full-year 2018 shows a sharp drop in household spending and investment, which exceeded our expectations. Both the GDP breakdown and the monthly leading indicators suggest that the 2019E performance will strongly depend on the external outlook, which is still on a deteriorating path at least for the first half of this year. All-in-all, we believe that the balance of risk to our already bearish 2019E GDP forecast is skewed to the downside. The local bonds have performed exceptionally well so far, but they are priced to perfection, in our view, and discount even more than the 800bps of rate cuts that we and the consensus expect for the next two years. The latest data signal that the economy has stabilised, but this may not be enough to prevent another bout of uncertainty in the near term.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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