WOOD Flash – Turkey macro: CBT on hold, with narrowing room to ease going forward
The Monetary Policy Committee at the CBT has decided to keep the policy rate (1W repo rate) unchanged at 19%, in line with both the consensus expectations and what we were anticipating. As before, the statement reiterated the pledge to maintain the policy rate above inflation, until indicators point strongly to a permanent fall in inflation and the medium-term 5% target is achieved. The MPC has kept the policy rate unchanged at 19% since April, and we expect a cumulative 400bps worth of rate cuts by end-2022E, with increasing upside risks, which could erode the room to ease significantly.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
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