WOOD Flash – Turkey macro: fiscal consolidation adds credibility
The medium-term programme (MTP) presented by finance minister Berat Albayrak promised c.2% of GDP fiscal adjustment, a magnitude that is within what we believe is needed to add credibility to the adjustment process. The new MTP reduced the GDP growth and current account deficit projections, implying a soft landing going forward. We see the GDP projections as optimistic, especially as we are of the view that global growth is decelerating. Inflation is forecast by the MoF to peak this year at 20.8%, slowing to 15.9% next year and 9.8% in 2020E. The inflation outlook, in our view, is reasonable and we expect the central bank to attempt some interest rate easing as soon as viable next year.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
A pioneer in Emerging Europe, WOOD executed many of the first CEE equity trades and landmark investment banking transactions. Our electronic trading platform was the first in the region, and remains the best. We are continually expanding our relevance and reach in these ever-evolving markets.
Our equity market share reflects our stature: 7% in Warsaw, 20% in Bucharest, 16% in Hungary, 40% in Prague and 5% in Vienna. Our distribution is unparalleled, with the largest salesforce in the region, servicing a uniquely diverse investor base.
We couple local expertise with a truly international perspective. With offices on the ground in the region, and in key financial hubs such as London and Milano, we are never far from our clients and we remain at the forefront of what’s afoot in the CEE emerging and frontier landscape.
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