WOOD Flash – Turkey macro: healing slowly
The April unemployment release shows further evidence that the labour market is beginning to stabilise, in line with our core outlook for Turkey. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate declined to 13.0% in April 2019, from 14.1% in March and 9.6% in the same period of the previous year. The seasonal pattern accentuates the magnitude of the improvement, but the trend is signalling quite clearly that we have hit the peak. On the balance of payments front, the current account on a 12M rolling basis is close to balance, while the funding shows growing “other†investment outflows. This confirms the tight funding conditions, and the need to maintain a prudent fiscal and geopolitical stance in order to avoid tipping the economy into a two-year long recession.
WOOD & Company is the leading investment bank in Emerging Europe. Founded in 1991 and head-quartered in Prague, our footprint spans the region and touches investors around the globe.
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