WOOD Flash – Turkey macro: inflationary factors ahead of the elections
Headline inflation in Turkey is set to decline in the coming months, as a result of strong base effects, which may lead observers to believe that the inflation picture is moving more under control, notwithstanding the severely disrupted monetary policy framework. This large drop was largely anticipated, due to the favourable base effect, stemming from the significant depreciation of the Turkish Lira at the end of 2021. The trend of declining inflation should continue over the next few months, due to this base effect, but we expect it to start subsiding after April. Nevertheless, inflation is likely to be driven upwards by pre-election fiscal actions and monetary policy decisions.
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