reports
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Banks_HBL Potential re-rating in the offing! (AKD Daily, Jan ...
AKD Daily Pakistan Banks: HBL Potential re-rating in the offing! Habib Bank Limited (HBL) is currently trading at a decade low CY22F P/B of 0.54x. Consequently, implied risk premium stands at 11.8% - at similar scale to that witnessed towards the end of CY08 and continued till CY10. Improvement in macros in CY11 reduced risk premium level to close to 4.2% (avg.) and we are setting the aforementioned performance as a precedent to drive HBL valuations forward with worst already behind us on ...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Economy_Inflation for Dec'21 to stand at 12.9%YoY, (AKD Daily...
AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: Inflation for Dec’21 to stand at 12.9%YoY Inflation for the month of Dec’21 is likely to stand at 12.9% vs. 11.5% in the previous month — the fifth consecutive month of continuous increase in curve, bringing CY21 to close at 9.5%, on a similar scale to last year. On a sequential basis, inflation is likely to trend at 0.5% in Dec’21 compared to 3.0% in Nov’21. In our base case, we expect inflation for FY22 at 11.3% with the authorities likely recording double d...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Banks_Monetary settings beginning to reflect in spreads (AKD ...
AKD Daily Pakistan Banks: Monetary settings beginning to reflect in spreads Banking sector spread for Nov’21 stood at 4.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of diminishing spread. Although, fresh spreads — being reflective of recent monetary settings – have begun to inch up with Nov’21 spread standing at 4.83%, +88bps MoM. Fresh lending yields incurred negative credit spread during the month of –ve 16bps vs. 33bps in Oct’21 where one plausible explanation is preponing of loan require...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Economy_MPC - Positive message delivered! (AKD Daily, Dec 15,...
AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: MPC - Positive message delivered! The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SBP, yesterday delivered another 100bps hike, taking policy rate to 9.75% but more importantly, communicating to “pause” monetary settings in the near term, believing the recent monetary policy actions are sufficient to meet SBP’s broader goals of sustainable growth and mildly positive real interest rates. SBP also acknowledged monthly external deficit being stronger in the near term ...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Economy_MPC - Expect 150bps hike to 10.25%, (AKD Daily, Dec 1...
AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: MPC - Expect 150bps hike to 10.25% Pakistan is set to return to double digit interest rates after just 9 months, with Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SBP due to meet tomorrow, likely increasing policy rate by 125-150bps. The policy setting is likely to weigh upon buildup in trade deficit (Nov’21 at US$5.0bn) along with surprise in inflation during the previous month. Inflation is likely to remain in double digits in the remainder of this fiscal year (avg....
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Strategy_Nov'21 market review and outlook, (AKD Daily, Dec 01...
AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy_Nov’21 market review and outlook Drawing curtains to MSCI EM, KSE-100 closed Nov’21 at 45,072.4pts denoting a –ve 2.5% performance during the month while marking the highest volatility CYTD. Avg. volume for the month stood at 316.1mn shares compared to 279.7mn shares in Oct’21 with activity largely tilted towards mainboards (KSE/KSE-ALL volume at 29.1% vs. 26.7% FYTD). Factors at play were, i) Central Bank mounting on aggressive monetary tightening (150bps hike i...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Economy_SBP increases CRR to 6%. (AKD Daily, Nov 15,2021)
AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: SBP increases CRR to 6% In a move that will clip the lending capacity of the banks and contain aggregate money supply growth, SBP raises statutory Cash Reserve Ratio by 100bps to 6%. The most recent regulatory measure maybe seen as a continuation of earlier move where SBP increased the requirements for auto-financing in order to curb consumer demand and bring the growth to more sustainable levels. With more money tied up to meet the new statutory requirements, t...
- Hamza Kamal
MSCI_ Pakistan set to be reclassified into FM from EM, (AKD Daily, Nov...
AKD Daily MSCI: Pakistan set to be reclassified into FM from EM Pakistan is set to be classified under Frontier Markets from Emerging Markets on Nov 11’21 with the change coming in affect by Nov-end. This should draw curtains on country’s 4.5yr long ride in EM index — the second in Pakistan’s market history — during which the market witnessed net foreign outflows of US$1.4bn and performed 1.4% during this period vs. 26.2% of MSCI EM index. Together with the current review, MSCI shall open c...
- Hamza Kamal
Oct'21 Inflation and HUBC preview, (AKD Daily, Oct 29, 2021)
AKD Daily Oct’21 Inflation and HUBC preview Oct’21 inflation is expected at 8.94%YoY vs. 8.98%YoY in the previous month whereas monthly inflation is likely to stand at 1.66% - recording 4th consecutive positive reading on a monthly basis. In our base case, we have revised up our FY22 oil assumption to US$70/bbl and our monthly food inflation forecast to 93bps from 68bps previously, pushing up our FY22 forecast to 9.5%YoY from 8.6%YoY previously. However, our inflation outlook is subject to...
- Hamza Kamal
PSO_PSMC & MUGHAL_Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Oct 28, 2021)
AKD Daily PSO, PSMC & MUGHAL: Result Previews PSO – PAT to clock in at PkR8.4bn (EPS: PkR17.8) for 1QFY22: Pakistan State Oil (PSO) is expected to announce its 1QFY22 result today where we expect the company to post PAT of PkR8.4bn (EPS: PkR17.81), increasing by 63%YoY as low inventory gains kept the base low however on sequential basis, profitability is expected to decrease by 23%QoQ on the back of significant inventory gains in 4QFY21. PSO is expected to record inventory gains of PkR4.5bn du...
- Hamza Kamal
BAHL_3QCY21 Result Review (above expectation), (AKD, Off the Analyst's...
AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk BAHL_3QCY21 Result Review (above expectation) Bank AL Habib Limited (BAHL) announced its 9MCY21 results today where the bank reported earnings of PkR13.8bn (EPS: PkR12.6) compared to PkR13.2bn (EPS: PkR12.0) in the same period last year. The result was above our expectation. For 3QCY21, earnings stood at PkR4.43/sh, +6.6%QoQ/ down 21.0%YoY where major deviation from our estimates occurred on account of higher than expected FX income (3QCY21: PkR848mn vs. PkR399mn...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Strategy_FATF Review - a non event for the market, (AKD Daily...
AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy: FATF Review - a nonevent for the market FATF in an unsurprising move has retained Pakistan amongst Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring, commonly known as the “Grey List”. The message was similar to previous ones of encouragement on reforms undertaken by the authorities while calling the Govt. to meet extended requirements. At present, Pakistan is compliant on 26 out of 27 counts on the initial action plan set in Jun’18, while in an unparalleled swiftness h...
- Hamza Kamal
HBL_Analyst Briefing Takeaways ,(AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk, Oct 18, ...
AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk HBL: Analyst Briefing Takeaways, Habib Bank Limited (HBL) held its Analyst Briefing session today. To recall, the bank posted earnings of PkR PkR27.0bn (EPS: PkR18.2) compared to PkR25.2bn (EPS: PkR17.2) in the same period last year. The bank also announced a dividend of PkR1.75/sh, taking cumulative dividends for current financial year to PkR5.25/sh. For 3QCY21, the bank posted earnings of PkR6.2/sh, down 5.4%QoQ/11.2%YoY. NIMs stood at 4.5% for the quarter whi...
- Hamza Kamal
HBL_9MCY21 Result Review, (AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk, Oct 15, 2021)
AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk HBL: 9MCY21 Result Review Habib Bank Limited (HBL) announced its 9MCY21 results today where the bank reported earnings of PkR27.0bn (EPS: PkR18.2) compared to PkR25.2bn (EPS: PkR17.2) in the same period last year. The result came in line with expectations. The bank also announced a dividend of PkR1.75/sh, taking cumulative dividends for current financial year to PkR5.25/sh. For 3QCY21, the bank posted earnings of PkR6.2/sh, down 5.4%QoQ/11.2%YoY where sequential...
- Hamza Kamal
EPCL_UBL & BAHL_9MCY21E Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Oct 15, 2021)
AKD Daily EPCL_UBL & BAHL_9MCY21E Result Previews, EPCL to post 3QCY21 EPS of PkR3.38: Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) is slated to announce its 9MCY21 result (15th Oct’21), where we expect the company to post 3QCY21 NPAT of PkR3.1bn (EPS: PkR3.38), as compared to PkR1.88bn (EPS: PkR2.07) in the same period last year. This will take 9MCY21 NPAT to PkR10.34bn (EPS: PkR11.37) vs. PkR2.1bn (EPS: PkR2.31) in 9MCY20. The expected earnings for the quarter primarily emanates from higher offtakes...
- Hamza Kamal
HBL_MEBL & EFERT_9MCY21 Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Oct 12, 2021)
AKD Daily HBL, MEBL & EFERT:9MCY21E Result Previews, HBL expected to announce earnings of PkR18.1/sh – flat on a YOY basis: Habib Bank Limited (HBL) is set to announce its 9MCY21 results on Oct 15, 2021 where we expect the bank to post NPAT of PkR27.2bn (EPS: PkR18.1) compared to NPAT of PkR25.2bn (EPS: PkR17.2) in the same period last year. For 3QCY21, earnings are expected to be recorded at PkR6.1/sh, down 3.5/9.3% QoQ/YoY where the sequential decline in earnings is attributable to possible ...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Strategy_Sep'21- Uncertainty kept PSX under pressure, (AKD Da...
AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy: Sep’21 - Uncertainty kept PSX under pressure KSE-100 index remained under pressure during Sep’21 on the back of i) setbacks on the foreign policy front, ii) ensuing weakness in macro indicators and iii) tightened price controls by the authorities, resulting in a decline of 5.3%MoM to close at 44,899pts - the largest monthly decline since Mar’20. With FYTD return standing at –ve 5.2%, CYTD return for the KSE-100 now stands at a paltry 2.6%. Flow wise, Foreigners...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan bank_Sector exhibiting robust asset quality, (AKD Daily, Sep ...
AKD Daily Pakistan bank: Sector exhibiting robust asset quality, Banks under our coverage — representing 60.8% of industry advances — have witnessed significant contraction in NPLs buildup with infection ratio spiraling down to 5.3% in Jun’21 compared to 5.9% at the start of the year. In absolute terms, NPLs stand at PkR292.0bn, down 3.0% since the beginning of the year whereas normalizing for currency appreciation transpired in 1HCY21, NPLs have remained flat. A closer look featured offse...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Strategy_Dissecting potential Evergrande fallout!, (AKD Daily...
AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy: Dissecting potential Evergrande fallout!, 2021 marks significant regulatory changes in China under the banner of “Common Prosperity Initiative” - targeting companies in Tech space, Real estate, and Education. The negative near-term implications from such regulatory actions have become more visible lately with Evergrande calling for debt-restructuring facing a possible default threat. Financial distress at Evergrande has brought jitters in Emerging Market bonds ...
- Hamza Kamal
Pakistan Economy_SBP moving interest rate needle by 25bps, (AKD Daily,...
AKD Daily Pakistan Economy: SBP moving interest rate needle by 25bps, In yesterday’s meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SBP delivered a 25bps hike in policy rate to 7.25% - the third Asian Bank demonstrating the need to begin tapering-off accommodative policies as the country’s economic recovery becomes more entrenched (FY22 GDPg forecast at 5%). The SBP noted that demand-side pressures have become more noticeable since the last MPC where imports have surged 67.7%YoY in 2MF...
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