reports
- Niklas Wetterling
Catena (Hold, TP: SEK480.00) - Strong Q1 margin, but muted activity
Solid Q1 results included a 7% consensus beat on PFPM, driven by the top line and NOI margin. We reiterate our HOLD, as we consider Catena overcapitalised and are concerned about the lack of attractive investment opportunities, particularly given a slow project market (historically the company’s highest ROI investment). In addition, we believe the valuation looks stretched versus its European logistics peers. However, we have raised our target price to SEK480 (470) and our 2026–2027e FFOps by 2–...
- Niklas Wetterling
Wihlborgs (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Too-high premium versus peers
Q1 profit from property management (PFPM) was 1% above consensus and net lettings were on the strong side. Overall, we have made only minor estimate changes, raising our 2025–2027e FFOPS by 2–3%. With a large pipeline of ongoing projects (c1.5x of 2025e FFO left to invest) and following recent acquisition, the LTV is at its highest level since 2018. We see limited further FFOPS upside potential for 2025–2027. We consider the stock close to fully valued near-term and the valuation rich versus pee...
- Niklas Wetterling
Corem (Hold, TP: SEK4.80) - Another round of divestments
Being among the worst-performing stocks in the sector YTD, we view the Q1 results as fairly neutral. PFPM was 2% below our estimate, and the soft Q1 net lettings were expected following industry media coverage of the WSP termination. Looking forward, Corem is eyeing divestments of an additional SEK5bn. Trading at a 70% discount to NAV, we believe many negatives are priced in, but due to its high FFO sensitivity to vacancy changes, we consider the risk high. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut ou...
- Niklas Wetterling
Fabege (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Soft start to 2025
The Q1 results were soft: 1) Profit from property management was 16% below consensus; 2) the EPRA vacancy rate rose to 13.8% (12.4% last quarter); and 3) market rents appeared to decline in some submarkets as renegotiations in Q1 dropped by 4.8% and Fabege wrote down asset values by 0.7% mainly on lowered market rent expectations. The equity story remains weak, with no turning point in sight and a soft FFOPS growth outlook, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK8...
- Niklas Wetterling
Atrium Ljungberg (Hold, TP: SEK32.00) - Undervalued, as is the sector
Key focus in Q1 was soft net lettings excluding project properties of SEK-69m (-2.1% of its rental value). The stock is trading far below historical averages on P/NAV, P/FFO, and implied EBIT yield – but so is the sector. We consider Atrium Ljungberg fully invested, given its ongoing projects. We view the FFOps growth outlook as soft, forecasting a 2024–2027e CAGR of -2%, or +3% assuming fully let projects upon completion. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK32 (40) on upd...
- Niklas Wetterling
Sagax (Hold, TP: SEK235.00) - More terminations and low forecast
Q4 PFPM beat our forecast by 3%, while a key negative was the rise in lease terminations, indicating a coming rise in vacancy rates, and a low 2025 PFPM forecast of SEK4.4bn, up just 2.4% YOY. Sagax is trading at a 67% NAV premium (adjusted for listed holdings at market value), or a 2026e P/FFO (based on our M&A scenario) roughly in line with our broader peer group. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK235 (240).
- Niklas Wetterling
Nyfosa (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - PFPM beat and DPS surprise, but more ter...
Q4 profit from property management (PFPM) was 9% above consensus, driven by higher revenues and lower admin and financial costs. Still, we have cut our 2026e FFOPS by 5%, reflecting the rise in terminations with moving-out during 2025 and an uptick in market interest rate. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK115 (125). We see significant investment capacity and believe a return to M&A-driven growth could tighten the widening P/NAV-valuation gap to Sagax’s other associated c...
- Niklas Wetterling
Catena (Hold, TP: SEK470.00) - Investment capacity; few prospects
PFPM was 6% below consensus in Q4, while the vacancy remained solid. We reiterate our HOLD, as we consider Catena overcapitalised and are concerned about the lack of attractive investment opportunities, especially since the project market, historically the company’s highest ROI investment, is slow. Also, we believe the valuation looks stretched versus its European logistics peers. We have cut our target price to SEK470 (490) and our 2026-2027e FFOps by 3%.
- Niklas Wetterling
Sveafastigheter (Buy, TP: SEK43.00) - 2025 could be year costs normali...
As expected, Q4 was hurt by one-off central admin costs. We believe a re-rating hinges on proof of normalised costs LTM (a 2024 NOI margin including property admin of 56.6%, versus the ‘earnings capacity’ guidance of 62%), which we expect in 2025–2026. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK43 (45) on higher interest costs and updated peer valuations.
- Niklas Wetterling
Castellum (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Unconvincing Q4 results
PFPM was 9% below Infront consensus and 6% below our forecast, while net letting of SEK23m (0.2% of rental value) was also below our expectations, as Castellum announced a large letting in Q4 (SEK67m p.a.). We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 3–4% and our target price to SEK135 (150). We reiterate our BUY as we view the 2025–2026e P/FFO of 13.6–12.8x, and 5.3–5.6% implied EBIT, attractive.
- Niklas Wetterling
Besqab (Hold, TP: SEK27.00) - Early signs of improving market
Q4 POC-based adj. EPS of SEK0.4 was above our forecast of SEK-0.4, and Besqab started 108 units net, just above our estimate of 101. We maintain our unit starts forecasts, but have raised our 2025e adj. EPS due to project delays pushing more completions from 2024, and 2026–2027e on timing effects. However, we expect 2024–2026 IFRS-based earnings to be weak and volatile until merger synergies materialise, and a ramp up in project starts in 2025e. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK27 target price.
- Niklas Wetterling
Corem (Hold, TP: SEK5.80) - Another set of soft results
The Q4 results were soft, with EBIT 4% below our forecast and PFPM 22% below. We have cut our 2025–2026e FFO by 17–25% on higher financial costs and the WSP termination (we see a cSEK40m net-letting headwind in Q1e). The next key event is set to be the outcome of ongoing negotiation with Ericsson for the remaining 55,000sqm office in Kista. Trading at a 68% discount to NAV, we believe many negatives are priced in, but due to its high FFO sensitivity to vacancy changes, we deem the risk high. We ...
- Niklas Wetterling
Logistea (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - First full quarter after recent merger
Q4 profit from property management (PFPM) adjusted for extraordinary refinancing costs was 9% above our forecast. Other report highlights were: 1) ‘earnings capacity’ PFPMps grew by 15% QOQ; 2) management was optimistic on potential additional financing cost savings; and 3) it surprised us by proposing a small DPS of SEK0.1. The key negative, in our view, was a tenant bankruptcy raising the vacancy rate to 3.1% (2.6% in Q3). We reiterate our BUY and SEK18 target price.
- Niklas Wetterling
Hufvudstaden (Hold, TP: SEK132.00) - Minor steps in the right directio...
Overall, the Q4 results were positive on several key metrics. EBIT was 4% above consensus; it had positive unrealised asset value changes of 1.1% QOQ; and the vacancy rate improved to 7.1% (from 7.6% in Q3). We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 2-3% mainly due to updated rent indexations and higher interest rates. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK132 target price.
- Niklas Wetterling
Wihlborgs (Hold, TP: SEK120.00) - Down on valuation and vacancies
After a long period of seeming almost immune to the softening rental market, Q4 finally revealed weakness, as the vacancy rate rose to 10.5% (8.2%). Wihlborgs’ strong outperformance versus office peers has made it Europe’s most expensive office stock, trading at a 17% premium to NAV (EPRA NRV). We consider the stock almost fully valued near-term and have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK120 (125).
- Niklas Wetterling
Balder (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Somewhat improving vacancy rate
Key highlights from the solid Q4 were: an improved vacancy rate (4.1%, Q3 4.4%); broadly flat property values (we expected a minor write-down); and optimistic comment regarding significant room for investments. We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOps by 4%, as we were too low on financial costs, but are still 3% above consensus on 2025e PFPM. We reiterate our BUY and SEK90 target price, due to the strong FFOps growth momentum in 2025e, low vacancy risk, and potential improved sentiment from re-entering...
- Niklas Wetterling
Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK45.00) - Strong hedging in Q4
The Q4 results were neutral, with surprisingly no property value writedowns; instead values rose by 0.7% QOQ. Wallenstam successfully increased interest rate hedging in the quarter (when interest rates were lower), extending its average interest rate term to 4.8 years (Q3 3.2). We have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 2–3%, but remain 3–4% below Infront consensus. We reiterate our SELL, based on a too-rich 2025–2027e P/FFO of 28–24x, but have raised our target price to SEK45 (40).
- Niklas Wetterling
Fabege (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) - Expectations remain low
The Q4 results did not change our view that the weak office rental market in Stockholm is set to persist at least through 2025. We consider this well reflected, with Fabege trading at a 43% discount to its last reported NAV. We forecast a low average funding rate of 2.6–2.8% in 2025–2026e; however, the P/FFO of 19.5–18.3x screens unattractively, especially as renovation capex could trend higher to just retain tenants in a weak rental market. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK87 target price.
- Niklas Wetterling
Atrium Ljungberg (Hold, TP: SEK200.00) - Soft net lettings and soft ou...
Q4 was on the soft side, as net lettings excluding project properties were SEK-47m (or -1.4% of its rental value). Reflecting its muted rental market outlook, management said “the recovery in the rental market typically lags, meaning weak demand is expected to persist through much of 2025”. An ongoing renegotiation with key tenant Ericsson (~3% of rental value) poses a significant near-term risk. We reiterate HOLD and SEK200 target price, viewing the stock as fully valued at 2026e P/FFO of 19.8x...
- Niklas Wetterling
Corem (Hold, TP: SEK6.50) - FFO sensitive to vacancy changes
Following the Ericsson termination and uptick in market interest rates, we have cut our 2026e FFO by 20%. The next key event is set to be the outcome of ongoing negotiation with Ericsson for the remaining 55,000sqm in Kista. Trading at a 64% discount to the last reported NAV, we believe a lot of negatives are priced into the stock. However, due to its high FFO sensitivity to potential vacancy changes, we consider the risk high and reiterate our HOLD. We have cut our target price to SEK6.5 (8.2).
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