reports
- Nicolay Dyvik
A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK9700.00) - In line for Q2
The liner companies’ swift response to the pandemic has seen the CCFI decrease only 7% QOQ, which, coupled with lower bunker prices and Maersk’s updated Q2 guidance, has lifted our 2020e EBITDA by 19%. Although some positive signals of higher volumes and fewer blank sailings have been seen, the outlook for H2e remains muted. After a change of analyst, we reiterate our HOLD and have raised our target price to DKK9,700, equalling our SOTP based on 2021e earnings multiples.
- Håkon Astrup
- Jørgen Lian
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Rune Majlund Dahl
- Viktor Trollsten
- Martin Arnell
- Mattias Holmberg
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Simen Mortensen
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Rune Majlund Dahl
- Nicolay Dyvik
MPC Container Ships (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - Rates around cash break-even
As of end-Q1, MPC’s equity ratio stood at 57% with available liquidity of USD52m. For the rest of 2020, we estimate an average TCE rate adjusted for utilisation of USD7.6k/day, slightly above MPC’s reported Q1 cash breakeven (excluding recurring capex and financing) of USD6.6k/day, but below our estimated cash breakeven for Q1 (excluding non-recurring capex and based on ownership days) of USD7.7k/day. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK8 (NOK10).
- Nicolay Dyvik
Höegh LNG Holdings (Hold, TP: NOK15.00) - Important next 12–18 mont...
We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK15 (24). The FSRU market seems to be improving, and we see significant upside potential if Höegh LNG fixes its four open units on long-term charters. However, time is of the essence for Höegh LNG Holdings. Its fleet of open FSRUs continues to secure time charters as LNGCs, but with rates down to USD40k/day, we estimate cash burn per vessel could potentially reach USD14m in 2021, highlighting the need to sign several FSRU contracts in 20...
- Alexander Aukner
- Håkon Astrup
- Joachim Gunell
- Mattias Holmberg
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Patrik Ling
- Nicolay Dyvik
Hunter Group (Buy, TP: NOK4.80) - Attractive risk/reward
Based on our new sector rate forecasts, and adjusted for Hunter’s announced timecharters and Q2 spot rate guidance, we estimate EPS of USD0.17 (NOK1.7) through our forecast horizon – corresponding to 46% of the current market cap. The potential refinancing is guided to take run-rate cash breakeven to USD20.5k/day, and we believe the company remains committed to returning capital to its shareholders. We reiterate our BUY and NOK4.8 target price.
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Stefan Gauffin
- Nicolay Dyvik
Golden Ocean (Hold, TP: NOK34.00) - Uneventful Q1
Uneventful Q1 Golden Ocean’s dividend was cut to zero as the company directs its focus towards cash preserving and “increasing (its) liquidity if the weak market continuesâ€. On our current rate estimates we do not expect the company to breach its covenants and expect the 2021 facility to be refinanced before maturity. However, liquidity could become a concern in a prolonged downturn. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK34 (38).
- Nicolay Dyvik
50% NIBD reduction in two years
We have upgraded our crude tanker stocks to BUY (HOLD) as the global crude inventory build looks to be only 25% of what we feared in April, and the recovery in oil demand and oil prices offers upside potential when OPEC+ volumes rebound. The tanker peer group implies a VLCC resale value of USD84m, near the low.
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Simen Mortensen
- Stefan Gauffin
- Nicolay Dyvik
Star Bulk (Hold, TP: USD5.80) - 2020 guidance at cash break-even
We reiterate our HOLD on Star Bulk and have cut our target price to USD5.8 (USD6.8). Through the combination of fuel spreads and timecharter coverage, the company has secured a large part of its earnings days for 2020 near cash break-even, protecting the downside in the current challenging dry bulk market.
- Nicolay Dyvik
BW LPG Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates, owing to the recent Q1 results. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price from NOK37 to NOK39, as we see a reduced discount to our one-year forward NAV as warranted.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Rune Majlund Dahl
- Simen Mortensen
- Tomi Railo
- Nicolay Dyvik
Frontline (Hold, TP: NOK88.00) - Rate collapse looming
Fresh floating storage data from Kpler and almost daily a string of OPEC+ cuts suggest a rate collapse by early Q3 and that our H2 forecasts could prove too optimistic. However, owing to a small orderbook and old fleet, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK88 target price.
- Nicolay Dyvik
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
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