reports
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Ontex [FY25 EBITDA at low end of guidance, FY26 guidance of +10% EBITD...
4Q adjusted EBITDA dropped by 32% while FY25 adjusted EBITDA landed at 175.6m, which is at the low end of the € 175-180m guidance given at the time of the profit warning in December. FY26 guidance calls for a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA to c. € 193m which is about 2% below our and consensus forecasts. We remind that Ontex recently decided to accelerate its CEO transition plan with Mr Nielly, previously President of Ontex Europe, having been appointed as the new CEO already in the course of J...
- Wim Hoste
DSM-Firmenich FIRST LOOK: 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA -4%, no FY26 guidance y...
4Q adj EBITDA for the continuing operations dropped by 4% y/y and was about 4% below our forecast and 3% below consensus. Dsm-firmenich's did not give FY26 guidance at this stage but promised to do so in the upcoming Investor Event (12 March). We remind that the long awaited and recently announced divestment of ANH disappointed on deal value (EV € 2.2bn, including a potential earn-out of up to € 0.5bn), but creates a group with a much more comprehensive activity and earnings profile. We still ap...
- Wim Hoste
AB InBev FIRST LOOK: FY25 EBITDA +4.9%, FY26 guidance of 4-8% organic ...
4Q organic top line and EBITDA growth was slightly better than consensus. ABI FY26 guidance of 4-8% organic EBITDA growth is in line with the mid term guidance and our & consensus estimates at c. +5%. Total FY25 dividend is upped from € 1 to € 1.15, including an earlier interim dividend of € 0.15. We still see AB InBev as the undisputed leader in the beer market, with leading market shares in many markets, ongoing digitization and premiumization trends allowing to generate healthy free cash flow...
- Guy Sips
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Heineken FIRST LOOK: FY25 operating profit +4.4%, FY26 guidance of 2-6...
Heineken's FY25 top line and operating profit figures were slightly better than our forecasts with operating profit in absolute terms in line with consensus. Heineken guides again for sizeable savings efforts in FY26 with operating profit growth guidance calling for a 2-6% range (vs our and consensus forecasts of c. 5%). We still appreciate Heineken for the sizeable self-help initiatives which should support organic earnings growth in the coming years, but acknowledge that the bumpier volume evo...
- Guy Sips
Lotus Bakeries Three Continents, One Momentum: Lotus Turns Up the Heat
We updated our model after Lotus Bakeries delivered in FY25 a 10% revenue increase to a very nice € 1,355m (KBCSe 1,355m, CSS 1,346m), driven by continued strong volume growth in 2H25 for both Lotus Biscoff (57% of branded revenues, +13% y/y) and Lotus Natural Foods (25% of branded, +17% y/y). Lotus Bakeries highlighted that the partnerships with Mondelez advanced strongly, contributing positively to the 2025 revenue. By the end of 2025, Biscoff production expanded to three continents. We welco...
- Guy Sips
- Michiel Declercq
- Guy Sips
Barco Despite US headwinds more or less in line but order cycles short...
FY2025 was more or less in line with our and CSS forecasts, demonstrating resilience amid global challenges and “setting up a foundation for future growth”. We maintain our prudence stance as -while FY2025 shows that Barco can return to sales and margin growth under difficult conditions- the year also exposed clear vulnerabilities—most notably in order intake, which fell 5% YoY (–2% at constant FX) and declined across several divisions and regions. The contraction in orders, combined with the st...
- Guy Sips
Biotalys Model update after strategic refocus
We updated our model (New “Accumulate”, New € 5.1 TP) after Biotalys plans a strategic refocus, concentrating resources on its top-priority biofungicide programs. Early-stage activities will be suspended and the organization downsized to cut costs while they claim “protecting long-term platform value”. The shift prioritizes Evoca NG, BioFun-6, and already partnered programs with the Gates Foundation and Syngenta. These measures aim to reduce cash burn by €20m through 2028 and strengthen commerci...
- Guy Sips
Biotalys Refocusing strategy on lead assets and cutting annual cash bu...
We will update our model (from “Buy” to “under review”) after Biotalys plans a strategic refocus, concentrating resources on its top-priority biofungicide programs. Early-stage activities will be suspended and the organization downsized to cut costs while protecting long-term platform value. The shift prioritizes EVOCA NG, BioFun-6, and already partnered programs with the Gates Foundation and Syngenta. These measures aim to reduce cash burn by €20m through 2028 and strengthen commercialization r...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
DSM-Firmenich FIRST LOOK: Sale of ANH to CVC for EV of up to € 2.2bn
Dsm-firmenich announced the divestment of its ANH business to CVC, while it will retain a 20% minority stake for now. The deal value (EV of up to € 2.2bn for 100%; implying a c. 7x EV/normalized adjusted EBITDA multiple) is in line with recent market rumours although below our € 3bn forecast, while also other elements in the deal structure are a bit disappointing (price tag included €0.5bn earn-out, a loan & liquidity facility will be provided). Despite the lower than expected ANH deal metrics, ...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
Lotus Bakeries FIRST LOOK : Three Continents, One Momentum: Lotus Turn...
In FY25, Lotus Bakeries delivered a 10% revenue increase to a very nice € 1.355m (KBCSe 1.355m, CSS 1.346m), driven by continued strong volume growth in 2H25 for both Lotus Biscoff (57% of branded revenues, +13% y/y) and Lotus Natural Foods (25% of branded, +17% y/y). Lotus Bakeries highlighted that the partnerships with Mondelez advanced strongly, contributing positively to the 2025 revenue By the end of 2025, Biscoff production expanded to three continents. We welcome that the new production...
- Guy Sips
Melexis In rough weather, exaggeration only deepens the valley
Melexis enters 2026 with a message that is far from triumphant: the recovery is happening, but it remains “an uneven recovery”. 4Q25 delivered growth, yes—but only just—and once again China dictated the rhythm with swings that overshadow structural progress. We updated our model taking into account management insists that FY26 will mark the start of margin improvement, and while the yield normalization story is credible, it does little to offset the uncomfortable reality of flat sales in 1Q an...
- Guy Sips
X Fab Silicon Foundries EV FIRST LOOK : Cautious on near term given on...
We updated our model as 1Q26 revenue is expected to come in within the range of $190-200m (KBCS from the low of the markets ($200.6m while CSS was $ 213.4m) to $ 195m now with an EBITDA margin in the range of 18% and 21% (KBCSe new 21.2%). We regret X-FAB is not providing FY26 guidance at this time due to limited visibility and the current macroeconomic environment. We think CSS will have to lower FY26E forecast substantially (CSS was $ 916.6m sales and 26.3% EBITDA-margin) and as a result we lo...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update February 2026: Removing ASMi; Adding UCB
After today's changes (ASMi out, UCB in), we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates. We remove ASMi from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent share price performance has driven the valuation meaningfully ahead of fundamentals. Since early December, FY27 diluted EPS expectations have risen by a...
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ROYAL VOPAK NV
AED AEDIFICA SA
CSM CORBION NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
Melexis FIRST LOOK: Remaining in an uneven recovery
Melexis saw in 4Q25 still a challenging and unstable environment as the automotive industry demand continues to be cautious and choppy between quarters. They indicated they remain in an uneven recovery. Melexis highlighted that -looking at FY26- 1Q is traditionally impacted by annual customer pricing agreements and seasonal factors such as Chinese New Year and sales patterns outside of automotive. In addition, this year demand is affected by recent changes in EV automotive regulations and purcha...
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