reports
- Pierre François Merveille
- Pierre François Merveille
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Pierre François Merveille
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
ISS ISS A/S
CGM CEGEDIM SA
VRAP VRANKEN-POMMERY MONOPOLE SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ALLAN LANSON-BCC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ELIS ELIS SA
REP REPSOL SA
AOF ATOSS SOFTWARE AG
EMMN EMMI AG
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
SSO SCATEC ASA
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
WLN WORLDLINE SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
ALM ALMIRALL SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
MDM MAISONS DU MONDE SA
2CRSI 2CRSI SA
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
SHEL SHELL PLC
CAN CANAL+
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Pierre François Merveille
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
ISS ISS A/S
CGM CEGEDIM SA
VRAP VRANKEN-POMMERY MONOPOLE SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
ATE ALTEN SA
ALLAN LANSON-BCC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
ELIS ELIS SA
REP REPSOL SA
AOF ATOSS SOFTWARE AG
EMMN EMMI AG
SLIGR SLIGRO FOOD GROUP N.V.
SSO SCATEC ASA
LIGHT SIGNIFY NV
WLN WORLDLINE SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
ALM ALMIRALL SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
MDM MAISONS DU MONDE SA
2CRSI 2CRSI SA
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
TOM2 TOMTOM NV
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
SHEL SHELL PLC
CAN CANAL+
- Pierre François Merveille
Worldline : On the mend
The new management team has presented a credible recovery plan for 2030, but it is difficult to rule out the risk of disruption. Following the announcements of the capital increase and divestments, we are upgrading our Credit opinion to Stable (vs. Negative) and our recommendations to Buy 26, 27, and 28 and Neutral 29 and 30 (vs. Reduce).
- Pierre François Merveille
Worldline : En convalescence
La nouvelle équipe dirigeante présente un plan de redressement crédible à horizon 2030 mais il est difficile de mettre de côté les risques de disruption. Après les annonces d’augmentation de capital et de cessions, notre avis crédit passe à Stable (vs. Négatif) et nos recommandations à Achat 26, 27 et 28 et Neutre 29 et 30 (vs. Alléger).
- Emmanuel Matot
- Pierre François Merveille
Worldline : On the mend
In November, the new management team presented a credible recovery plan for 2030. Taking into account the dilution of the guaranteed capital increase and the risks of technological disruption, we arrive at a valuation in line with the current share price, given its decline (o/w -41% over three months). We are upgrading the stock to Neutral (from Underperform) with a target price of € 1.6.
- Emmanuel Matot
- Pierre François Merveille
Worldline : En convalescence
La nouvelle équipe dirigeante a présenté en novembre un plan de redressement crédible à horizon 2030. En intégrant la dilution de l’augmentation de capital garantie et les risques de disruption technologique, nous obtenons une valorisation en ligne avec le cours de Bourse actuel compte tenu de sa chute (dont -41% sur 3 mois). Nous passons en Neutre sur la valeur (vs Sous-performance) avec un objectif de cours de 1.6 €.
- Pierre François Merveille
OVHcloud : Back in the office to revive growth
OVHcloud has been benefitting from strong demand for cloud services but it has been growing slower than the overall market. Its organic revenue growth has been decelerating to +9.3% in FY24-25 and the FY25-26 guidance points to a 5-7% revenue expansion. We believe that this reflects its revenue mix (greater contribution of private cloud services) and its focus on profitability/ cash flow generation. But this is also due to a failing commercial approach that recently led to churn in the small cus...
- Pierre François Merveille
OVHcloud : Back in the office to revive growth
OVHcloud has been benefitting from strong demand for cloud services but it has been growing slower than the overall market. Its organic revenue growth has been decelerating to +9.3% in FY24-25 and the FY25-26 guidance points to a 5-7% revenue expansion. We believe that this reflects its revenue mix (greater contribution of private cloud services) and its focus on profitability/ cash flow generation. But this is also due to a failing commercial approach that recently led to churn in the small cus...
- Pierre François Merveille
Canal+ : Issuance Focus
French pay-TV operator Canal+ plans to tap the bond debt markets with an inaugural issue of € 500m of 5-year unsecured notes. Net proceeds will be used to reduce the size of the € 1.46bn outstanding bridge loan that was drawn to fund the acquisition of Multichoice, an African pay-TV operator that will complement Canal+’s footprint on this continent. We recommend subscribing to the new bonds at a min. yield of 3.80% (min. spread of MS+ 135bp).
- Pierre François Merveille
Canal+ : Focus Emission
French pay-TV operator Canal+ plans to tap the bond debt markets with an inaugural issue of € 500m of 5-year unsecured notes. Net proceeds will be used to reduce the size of the € 1.46bn outstanding bridge loan that was drawn to fund the acquisition of Multichoice, an African pay-TV operator that will complement Canal+’s footprint on this continent. We recommend subscribing to the new bonds at a min. yield of 3.80% (min. spread of MS+ 135bp).
- Pierre François Merveille
Kantar : Another transition year
Credit metrics will be hit a mixture of headwinds 2025 before improving in 2026. Two headwinds are the result of management decisions: 1/ the use of a portion of Kantar Media’s disposal proceeds to repay the expensive Vista vendor loan (leverage impact of 0.2-0.3x, while management previously said that the sale of Kantar Media would be broadly neutral on net leverage) and 2/ the acceleration of transformation and restructuring costs, leading to negative FCF in the region of -$ 100m this year. Ot...
- Pierre François Merveille
Kantar : Another transition year
Credit metrics will be hit a mixture of headwinds 2025 before improving in 2026. Two headwinds are the result of management decisions: 1/ the use of a portion of Kantar Media’s disposal proceeds to repay the expensive Vista vendor loan (leverage impact of 0.2-0.3x, while management previously said that the sale of Kantar Media would be broadly neutral on net leverage) and 2/ the acceleration of transformation and restructuring costs, leading to negative FCF in the region of -$ 100m this year. Ot...
- Pierre François Merveille
Biogroup : Best-in-class margins but regulatory uncertainty weighs on ...
We consider that Biogroup has well resisted to the steep tariff cuts in France and in Belgium in 2024. We forecast that Biogroup’s EBITDA will drop by only -3% to € 421m in 2025 (vs. € 433m in 2023) thanks to the consolidation of Analiza in Spain since July 2024 as well as a good execution of the transformation plan (€ 41m of savings in 2024 and € 55m expected for FY2025). We thus forecast a slight deterioration of the net leverage from 6.3x in 2023 to 6.6x in 2024-25, before a reduction to 6.0x...
- Pierre François Merveille
Biogroup : Best-in-class margins but regulatory uncertainty weighs on ...
We consider that Biogroup has well resisted to the steep tariff cuts in France and in Belgium in 2024. We forecast that Biogroup’s EBITDA will drop by only -3% to € 421m in 2025 (vs. € 433m in 2023) thanks to the consolidation of Analiza in Spain since July 2024 as well as a good execution of the transformation plan (€ 41m of savings in 2024 and € 55m expected for FY2025). We thus forecast a slight deterioration of the net leverage from 6.3x in 2023 to 6.6x in 2024-25, before a reduction to 6.0x...
- Pierre François Merveille
Iliad : Additional thoughts on potential market consolidation in Franc...
We published a Special Comment on Iliad on 3rd September 2023 in the context of Iliad SA’s issuance of € 600m of new unsecured notes due in January 2032 (long 6Y) at a yield of 4.25%. We touched briefly upon Iliad’s solid H1 2025 earnings, the group’s adequate liquidity, and its current Ba3/BB ratings with a positive outlook. In this report, we are adding some thoughts about the capital structure and the impact of a potential consolidation in France, in the light of a new article published by BF...
- Pierre François Merveille
Iliad : Additional thoughts on potential market consolidation in Franc...
We published a Special Comment on Iliad on 3rd September 2023 in the context of Iliad SA’s issuance of € 600m of new unsecured notes due in January 2032 (long 6Y) at a yield of 4.25%. We touched briefly upon Iliad’s solid H1 2025 earnings, the group’s adequate liquidity, and its current Ba3/BB ratings with a positive outlook. In this report, we are adding some thoughts about the capital structure and the impact of a potential consolidation in France, in the light of a new article published by BF...
- Pierre François Merveille
Medical labs : Towards more pricing pressure in France?
The Igas-IGF report that has been prepared by two independent government bodies and published in the course of July 2025 is having a tough stance on the biology sector in France. It has made 20 recommendations that would lead to a sharp decline in profitability over time towards more “reasonable” levels and the average (EBITDA – Capex)/sales ratio of 7% in the entire healthcare sector. In its July report on 2026 perspectives, the CNAM highlights inter-alia the economic rents of various medical s...
- Pierre François Merveille
Biologie médicale : Towards more pricing pressure in France?
The Igas-IGF report that has been prepared by two independent government bodies and published in the course of July 2025 is having a tough stance on the biology sector in France. It has made 20 recommendations that would lead to a sharp decline in profitability over time towards more “reasonable” levels and the average (EBITDA – Capex)/sales ratio of 7% in the entire healthcare sector. In its July report on 2026 perspectives, the CNAM highlights inter-alia the economic rents of various medical s...
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