reports
- Pierre François Merveille
Altice France : What is the next rabbit that will be pulled out of Dra...
>A more aggressive tone to put pressure on creditors - Altice France continues to underperform the French telecoms market in terms of commercial and financial performance and released last month a weak outlook for 2024, reflecting the expected slowdown in construction revenues (impact of fibre rollout) but also the lack of operating leverage. The key topic was the change in management tone as the company is now aiming to abruptly reset the leverage at a level “well ...
- Pierre François Merveille
Altice France : What is the next rabbit that will be pulled out of Dra...
>A more aggressive tone to put pressure on creditors - Altice France continues to underperform the French telecoms market in terms of commercial and financial performance and released last month a weak outlook for 2024, reflecting the expected slowdown in construction revenues (impact of fibre rollout) but also the lack of operating leverage. The key topic was the change in management tone as the company is now aiming to abruptly reset the leverage at a level “well ...
- Pierre François Merveille
- Stephane Beyazian
Eutelsat Group : Retour sur terre
Nous initions Eutelsat Group à Sous-performance avec un objectif de cours de 3,0 €. Nous avons passé en revue sous l’angle crédit et equity l’impact de différents facteurs : problématique de refinancement, perspectives de succès ou d’échec de la transaction OneWeb, concurrence, réinvestissement dans une nouvelle constellation Gen-2. Le scénario d’un succès de la constellation OneWeb reste encore trop éloigné selon nous au regard du carnet d’ordre actuel, des investissements à ven...
- Pierre François Merveille
- Stephane Beyazian
Eutelsat Group : Back to earth
We initiate coverage on Eutelsat Group at Underperform with a target price of € 3.0. We reviewed from a credit and equity perspective the impact of different factors: refinancing issues, prospects of success or failure of the OneWeb transaction, competition, reinvestment in a new Gen-2 constellation. The scenario of success for the OneWeb constellation still remains too remote in our opinion given the current order book, future investments and growing competition. - - >OneW...
- Pierre François Merveille
Orange : Feedback 5th TMT Credit Days – 20 & 21 March 2024
On 20 & 21 March, we organized our 5th TMT credit days with eight issuers in the telecoms, media and technology sectors: ams OSRAM, Cellnex, Ipsos, Masmovil, Nexi, Orange, SoftBank Group and Worldline. 84 credit investors registered to the event. - This document summarizes our feedback of the virtual meetings by issuer. - > - - - ...
- Pierre François Merveille
Orange : Feedback 5th TMT Credit Days – 20 & 21 March 2024
On 20 & 21 March, we organized our 5th TMT credit days with eight issuers in the telecoms, media and technology sectors: ams OSRAM, Cellnex, Ipsos, Masmovil, Nexi, Orange, SoftBank Group and Worldline. 84 credit investors registered to the event. - This document summarizes our feedback of the virtual meetings by issuer. - > - - - ...
- Pierre François Merveille
Eutelsat Group : Back on earth
>OneWeb: revenue take-off still to be demonstrated - Eutelsat Group is a global operator of satellite services (TV broadcasting, connectivity services) thanks to its fleet of 35 satellites in geostationary orbit ("GEO") at an altitude of 36,000 km. Faced with competition from the arrival of services in low earth orbit (LEO), the group invested massively in 2023 in the acquisition of the start-up OneWeb, whose constellation of 650 satellites is already scheduled to be ...
- Pierre François Merveille
Eutelsat Group : Retour sur terre
>OneWeb : un décollage des revenus qui reste à démontrer… - Eutelsat Group est un opérateur mondial de services par satellite (diffusion TV, services de connectivité) grâce à sa flotte de 35 satellites en orbite géostationnaire (« GEO ») à 36 000 km d’altitude. Face à la concurrence de l’arrivée de services en orbite basse (LEO), le groupe a massivement investi en 2023 dans le rachat de la start-up OneWeb dont le remplacement de la constellation de 650 satellites est ...
- Pierre François Merveille
Grifols A : Tossed but not sunk
>Grifols and its shareholder Scranton are at the heart of Gotham’s attack - On 9 January 2024, short seller Gotham City Research published a report arguing that Grifols is manipulating its reported debt and EBITDA in order to artificially reduce its reported leverage to 6.7x in Q3 2023, when it is closer to 10-13x. Gotham also criticized related-party transactions with Scranton, one of Grifols’ largest shareholders with an 8.4% stake as well as the valuation of plas...
- Pierre François Merveille
Grifols A : Tossed but not sunk
>Grifols and its shareholder Scranton are at the heart of Gotham’s attack - On 9 January 2024, short seller Gotham City Research published a report arguing that Grifols is manipulating its reported debt and EBITDA in order to artificially reduce its reported leverage to 6.7x in Q3 2023, when it is closer to 10-13x. Gotham also criticized related-party transactions with Scranton, one of Grifols’ largest shareholders with an 8.4% stake as well as the valuation of plas...
- Pierre François Merveille
SPIE : All systems go
SPIE boasts solid fundamentals. Organic growth in production (ODDO BHF estimates of +8% in 2023 and +5% in 2024) is driven by demand for energy transition/efficiency services, low exposure to sectors hit by the economic downturn (such as residential property) and a proven capacity to pass on inflation to customers. We also expect margins to grow steadily (+30bp to 6.6% in 2023 then +20bp to 6.8% in 2024), buoyed by a selective approach to contracts, price hikes and the accretive ...
- Pierre François Merveille
SPIE : Les indicateurs sont au vert
SPIE bénéficie de solides fondamentaux. La croissance organique de la production (estimations Oddo BHF de +8% en 2023 et +5% en 2024) est tirée par la demande pour les services de transition/efficacité énergétique, une faible exposition aux secteurs impactés par le ralentissement économique (comme l’immobilier résidentiel) ainsi qu’une capacité prouvée à répercuter l’inflation dans les prix de vente. Nous prévoyons également une hausse graduelle de la marge (+30bp à 6,6% en 2023 ...
- Pierre François Merveille
Softbank Group : SoftBank has a new right Arm
SoftBank Group has delivered on its promise made in May 2022 to move into a defense mode as new investments have been slashed in FY 2022 (ending in March 2023) and the reported LTV ratio has significantly declined from 20.4% in Q4 2021 to 11% in Q2 2023, well below its internal limit of 25%. The improvement of the LTV ratio was primarily driven by the full monetization of the Alibaba stake through new prepaid forward contracts. Conversely the exit of Alibaba had an adverse impact...
- Pierre François Merveille
Softbank Group : SoftBank has a new right Arm
SoftBank Group has delivered on its promise made in May 2022 to move into a defense mode as new investments have been slashed in FY 2022 (ending in March 2023) and the reported LTV ratio has significantly declined from 20.4% in Q4 2021 to 11% in Q2 2023, well below its internal limit of 25%. The improvement of the LTV ratio was primarily driven by the full monetization of the Alibaba stake through new prepaid forward contracts. Conversely the exit of Alibaba had an adverse impact...
- Pierre François Merveille
Synlab : Focus Emission
PE fund Cinven intends to raise a new € 900m 7-year term loan B and € 550m of new 7NC3 secured notes at the level of Ephios Subco 3 to fund in part its takeover bid on Synlab, the European leader in lab testing services with LTM revenues of € 2.65bn and LTM adj. EBITDA of €419m. The PF leverage will stand at 4.8x (5.5x on a reported basis) as par company definition in Q3 2023 and should mildly decrease in the near term owing to limited M&A activity and management’s focus on impro...
- Pierre François Merveille
Synlab : Issuance Focus
PE fund Cinven intends to raise a new € 900m 7-year term loan B and € 550m of new 7NC3 secured notes at the level of Ephios Subco 3 to fund in part its takeover bid on Synlab, the European leader in lab testing services with LTM revenues of € 2.65bn and LTM adj. EBITDA of €419m. The PF leverage will stand at 4.8x (5.5x on a reported basis) as par company definition in Q3 2023 and should mildly decrease in the near term owing to limited M&A activity and management’s focus on impro...
- Pierre François Merveille
ams OSRAM : Issuance Focus
ams OSRAM plans to issue € 800m equivalent of new 5NC2 unsecured notes in EUR and in USD. The proposed bond issuance is part of the comprehensive € 2.25bn refinancing plan that was announced in September 2023 to address the funding requirements until 2025-26. The IPT for the new notes is ~11% for the EUR tranche and ~12.5% for the USD tranche. The IPT is very large and more in line with the average yield of 5-year ‘B-‘ rated bonds (10.4%) according to our internal yield matrix. I...
- Pierre François Merveille
ams OSRAM : Focus Emission
ams OSRAM plans to issue € 800m equivalent of new 5NC2 unsecured notes in EUR and in USD. The proposed bond issuance is part of the comprehensive € 2.25bn refinancing plan that was announced in September 2023 to address the funding requirements until 2025-26. The IPT for the new notes is ~11% for the EUR tranche and ~12.5% for the USD tranche. The IPT is very large and more in line with the average yield of 5-year ‘B-‘ rated bonds (10.4%) according to our internal yield matrix. I...
- Pierre François Merveille
Biogroup : Biogroup is testing its cost base
Results are sharply down (revenues -29% and EBITDA -48% in H1 2023) owing to the rapid fall in covid testing revenues, related delays to adjust staff costs and inflationary pressure. Conversely, routine revenues performed better than expected (c. +2% organically) as solid volume growth enabled to more than offset a 4.7% regulatory cut in tariffs in France. The outlook should be more favorable in 2024 owing to more moderate tariff cuts in France and the impact of the group’s effic...
- Pierre François Merveille
Biogroup : Biogroup is testing its cost base
Results are sharply down (revenues -29% and EBITDA -48% in H1 2023) owing to the rapid fall in covid testing revenues, related delays to adjust staff costs and inflationary pressure. Conversely, routine revenues performed better than expected (c. +2% organically) as solid volume growth enabled to more than offset a 4.7% regulatory cut in tariffs in France. The outlook should be more favorable in 2024 owing to more moderate tariff cuts in France and the impact of the group’s effic...
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