reports
- Patrik Ling
Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Upgraded to BUY after Q1 beat
Q1 earnings were stronger than we expected, with no negative surprises. We believe consensus for the coming years looks realistic and that Getinge’s valuation (despite the recent share price rise) looks attractive. Thus, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and have raised our target price to SEK255 (210).
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK58.00) - An in-line report
The Q1 results were fairly in line with our expectations, with the main deviation higher restructuring charges. Adjusted for this, EBIT was in line. Overall, organic growth was 4.3% YOY, in line with the full-year guidance of 3–5%. Arjo also provided an update on the Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) for Wound Express, where data should be available in mid-2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK58 (60).
- Patrik Ling
Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Soft start to the year
Q1 earnings were softer than expected, with sales and adj. EBITDA c3% below consensus, despite the downward revisions to consensus ahead of the results. Genetics was positively affected by stocking effects in H1 2023, making for challenging comparables in Q2 as well. However, we see potential for a turnaround in Genetics in Q3. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK210 (230) on revised forecasts.
- Patrik Ling
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Vonjo sales likely to ...
We forecast still-soft Vonjo sales in Q1, as we believe new patients will not fully compensate for those coming off treatment until Q2, when we expect growth to return. We are slightly below consensus for Q1e and 2024e (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Set for a soft start to 2024
We expect Vitrolife to report a relatively soft start to 2024 (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 18 April). We believe Consumables and Technology continued to perform well, but that the turnaround in Genetic Services failed to materialise (with tough comparables due to the loss of some US contracts in the US late in Q1 as well as strong sales of genetic kits in Q1–Q2 last year due to stocking, which we expect to normalise this year). We are in line with consensus on 2024e adj. EBITDA but just below...
- Patrik Ling
- Patrik Ling
Getinge (Hold, TP: SEK210.00) - More of the same
We expect Q1 revenues of cSEK7.7bn and an adj. EBITA margin of c9.8% – basically in line with consensus. Given the issues in Getinge, with packaging in ACT seemingly solved later than previously assumed, it is fair to assume the negative impact will continue into Q1 and Q2 at least. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK210 target price. The Q1 report is due at 08:00 CET on 22 April.
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - Steady as she goes
We expect broadly stable trends in Q1 versus recent quarters, and forecast decent underlying growth, with patient-handling and pressure sore prevention again facing some headwinds but service and rental still going strong. We also expect a small negative impact from Red Sea-related logistics issues, but not enough to alter the overall picture. We reiterate our BUY and SEK60 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Alvotech (Buy, TP: USD21.00) - Strong fiscal 2024–2025 guidance
Alvotech reported fiscal Q4 2023 earnings and hosted a CMD late last week. These were broadly in line with our expectations, but also rather a non-event given the late reporting and developments that have taken place in Q1 (approval of AVT02 in the US), and approval of AVT04 in the US, expected in April. Guidance for 2024 (and 2025) was stronger than we had expected. Overall, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD21 (19).
- Patrik Ling
Oncopeptides (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced
Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.
- Patrik Ling
Vimian (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Updated targets and capital raise
This morning, Vimian updated its long-term financial targets and announced a rights issue. The new financial targets include adj. EBITA of >EUR300m by 2030 and net debt/LTM adj. EBITDA of below 3x. The company also announced a rights issue of cSEK1.6bn intended to strengthen the balance sheet and allow for further M&A activity. Given DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.
- Patrik Ling
Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Q4 in line with expectations
We believe the Q4 report was somewhat of a non-event, and adjusted for two writedowns of intangible assets, the operating loss was in line with our forecast. For 2024, we look forward to the commencement of the phase IIb trial ASPIRE for IPF, and expect additional follow-up data from the single arm trial AIR in H1. We reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Elekta (Hold, TP: SEK82.00) - A soft quarter
Q3 earnings were softer than we and the market expected. The weak order intake stood out, while strong cash flow was the bright spot in the report. Order intake (c14% below our forecast and consensus) remains hampered by still-poor performance in APAC (mainly China). EMEA was also weak, but on very challenging comparables. Overall, the company was optimistic that Q4 would be in line with last year, bolstering the share price. We reiterate our HOLD, but have trimmed our target price to SEK82 (SEK...
- Patrik Ling
Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK5.50) - US not an option, focus on Europe
In line with our base-case scenario, the FDA has withdrawn the accelerated approval for Pepaxto in the US. As a result, the focus is now growth in Europe, where it has full approval. Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, but we believe the sales trend is moving in the right direction. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK5.5 (7).
- Patrik Ling
Alvotech (Buy, TP: USD19.00) - Simlandi approved in the US
Over the weekend, Alvotech announced that the FDA has finally approved Simlandi (AVT02) for sale in the US after its latest inspection of the facility in Reykjavik. We consider this a key event, as Simlandi will be the first biosimilar to Humira in the US, which for the high-concentration formulation (c88% of Humira use is high-concentration in the US) is citric-free and has approved interchangeability. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD19 (11).
- Patrik Ling
Elekta (Hold, TP: SEK83.00) - Still on the sidelines
After a disappointing Q2, we forecast Q3 2023/24 to show an improvement (results due at 07:30 CET on 29 February), although we still expect a soft quarter, with declining order intake YOY. Overall, we have made some negative revisions to our forecasts ahead of the report, and reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK83 (90).
- Patrik Ling
PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Headwinds set to ease
Q4 earnings were strong, with Hexvix/Cysview sales slightly above our estimate and operating expenses below, driving the strong earnings beat (EBITDA 106% above our estimate, 84% above consensus). The company still faces some headwinds from the loss of flex in the US, but this should be most visible in Q1, with the headwinds easing over the coming quarters. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK87 (95).
- Patrik Ling
Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK41.00) - Focus on cash flow going forward
Q4 earnings were better than expected but this was mostly due to the capitalisation of development costs, making this a ‘low-quality’ earnings beat. The new CEO (from Danaher Corp.) seems focused on improving cash flow, which has been a weak point for Vimian in the past. Also, we got the impression that M&A might be back on the agenda. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK41 (38).
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK550.00) - Overreaction to 2024 guidance
The Q4 results were in line with the pre-announced figures from the capital raise earlier this year. However, we believe the 2024 guidance was perceived as weak for the top line and PTP. The latter guidance included cSEK300m in investments for building a commercial organisation in the US, well above what we and the market expected. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK550 (425), after adding a proportion of the value of the pipeline to our valuation.
- Patrik Ling
Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.50) - Rights issue announced
The group pre-announced its Q4 earnings on 8 February in tandem with revealing plans for a rights issue (c40% guaranteed, with a subscription price of SEK1.07/unit). We believe the financial risk in the case remains high, given less than half the rights issue would be guaranteed and the stock is trading below the subscription price. However, we reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1.5 (1.0).
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