reports
- Patrik Ling
Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Disappointing start to 2025
Q1 sales undershot consensus by c3% and EBITDA by c11%, with earnings missing across the board. Organic sales growth was c3% (excluding discontinued operations equating to close to 3% of total sales). Divisionally, Technologies saw the largest deviations versus consensus (although it can be volatile quarter to quarter). On the positive side, the lawsuit in the US related to PGT-A has not had any negative impact on those sales. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK230 (255).
- Patrik Ling
Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK250.00) - An in-line report, but global turbulenc...
Reported Q1 earnings were in line with consensus. However, we still believe the turbulent environment with tariffs, huge FX swings and geopolitical uncertainty could hurt the company. We suspect these factors could have a large effect from Q2. The stock market probably read the comments on the global environment as a risk, leading to the sell-off in the stock. We reiterate our BUY and SEK250 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - In line with consensus Q1 sales
Our Q1 and 2025 estimates are broadly in line with consensus. We expect continued growth for Buvidal and the Brixadi royalties, and more clarity on the Oclaiz approval for the US market (to settle manufacturing observations, which resulted in the CRL in October 2024). We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK250.00) - FX and tariffs cause for concern
Given its geographical sales exposure, Getinge should see a strong tailwind from FX in Q1, but if spot rates stay as they are, this should turn abruptly into a significant headwind in Q2. Investors are also concerned about the potential impact from US tariffs and reciprocal actions in other markets, given that Getinge generates c40% of total sales (and c47% of the high-margin ACT sales) in the US. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK250 (255).
- Patrik Ling
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Slightly below consens...
We forecast a decent quarter, despite some difficult revenue comparables, with no manufacturing revenues, lower Elocta sales and lower Beyfortus royalties YOY, unlikely to be fully compensated by new product growth, such as for Altuvoct. Meanwhile, the company continues to invest in its recently launched products (and coming launches), which should be well known by the market. We reiterate our BUY and SEK365 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Alvotech (No_rec, TP: USD) - Updated medium-term targets
Q4 sales were stronger than we forecast, and adj. EBITDA was a tad higher. However, the adj. EBITDA margin was below consensus (most likely due to lower-than-expected milestones and higher product sales). For 2025, our revenue and adj. EBITDA forecasts are at the upper end of the guidance. We do not have a recommendation or target price for Alvotech given DNB Markets’ role in the transaction with Xbrane Biopharma.
- Patrik Ling
Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Last year with AOP
We believe focus will be on growth and cash flow for Q1. However, we highlight that Vimian is shrinking its annual ordering programme (AOP) for the medical technology division this year, affecting YOY sales and margin comparisons. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK42.00) - Stable Q1 expected
We are slightly below consensus for Q1, but believe this is due to different FX assumptions and our inclusion of higher one-off costs. We see stable sales and improving growth in 2025, with a new CEO not expected until H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have trimmed our target price to SEK42 (43) following our forecast adjustments.
- Patrik Ling
Alvotech (No_rec, TP: USD) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn
Alvotech announced this morning that it is to acquire Xbrane Biopharma’s rights to pipeline project XB003 (biosimilar to Cimzia), and its R&D facilities and personnel in Stockholm, forming the base of its new Swedish biosimilar drug development centre. The deal is pending Xbrane Biopharma shareholder approval. Given DNB Markets’ role in the transaction, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.
- Patrik Ling
Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Growth and margins in focus
We expect market focus on growth (especially within Genomics) and margins. Vitrolife indicated an increase in the sales organisation, and we believe there could be costs associated with the class action suits related to PGT-A in the US. There is a risk the PGT-A turbulence could result in a slow recovery in Genomics growth, although the company said there has been no visible impact on PGT-A demand so far. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK255 (265).
- Patrik Ling
Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Focus on ASPIRE recruitment
The Q4 report was a non-event in our opinion, and we expect the market to focus on the recruitment pace for the ongoing phase IIb ASPIRE trial in IPF. The trial started recruiting in H2 2024 and c32 of a total 92 clinics are now actively recruiting patients. We expect the trial recruitment to be completed in early 2026 and data read-out in H1 2027 (52 weeks of treatment). We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Softer-than-expected earnings
Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).
- Patrik Ling
Egetis Therapeutics (Buy, TP: SEK11.00) - First launch coming up
In our view, the Q4 report was something of a non-event, but the company gained European approval for Emcitate on 13 February, and is planning launches in Germany in Q2 and in Spain, Italy and France in H2. Moreover, the pivotal US trial, ReTRIACt, is progressing, with the company planning to file for US approval in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK11 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Elekta (Hold, TP: SEK65.00) - Earnings miss and guidance cut
Elekta reported weaker earnings than we forecast and reduced its 2024/25 guidance. The company expects flat revenues (from mid-single digit growth) and lower adj. EBIT margin (from increasing margins). Order intake was strong, with c21% growth YOY driven by Elekta Evo and Elekta ONE. The share price reaction (down c9% on the reporting day) reflects the stock market’s caution’s regarding Elekta’s growth and margin progression, we believe. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SE...
- Patrik Ling
BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Large milestones in 2025e
The Q4 report was slightly better than we expected. The royalty levels were already known, but the operating loss was below our forecast due to lower R&D and S&M spending. In 2025, BioArctic is set to receive cUSD130m in milestone payments from Bristol-Myers Squibb (due to the Brain Transporter deal) and Eisai (for EU approval as well as a sales milestone). The next important event is set to be the CHMP meeting in February that should (again) result in a positive opinion for Leqembi’s EU approva...
- Patrik Ling
Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Strong organic growth in Q4
Vimian reported higher-than-expected Q4 earnings, with strong organic growth of c15% YOY, a clear step-up from recent quarters. Cash flow was also stronger than we expected and the company is clearly continuing its focus on cash generation. In addition, the recently acquired iM3 operation was consolidated. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Guidance in line with expectations
Q4 earnings were as pre-announced, and included stronger-than-expected growth in Buvidal sales as well as a slight beat on Brixadi royalties. Consensus for 2025e is at the top end of the guidance; however, historically management has raised its guidance during the year. We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Elekta (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Focus on guidance for Q4
We are in line with consensus for Q3 and believe investors should focus on the guidance for Q4 and the full year, given the miss last year. 2024/25 is likely to be skewed towards Q4, which should be a ‘make or break’ quarter for the full year, despite the easy YOY comparable. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK70 target price.
- Patrik Ling
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Investing for growth
SOBI reported in line with its pre-announced earnings. We expected a higher margin than consensus. Guidance for 2025 was for high-single-digit growth and an adj. EBITA margin in the mid-30s. We believe our margin assumptions have been too high, and have thus made adjustments. However, as SOBI has several new launches and multiple clinical trials, we believe the investments in sales and marketing are sound. We reiterate our BUY, despite lowering our estimates, and have raised our target price to ...
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK43.00) - Uneventful Q4 report
Q4 earnings had been pre-announced when Arjo informed the market of the change of CEO (mid-January); overall, sales and margins were stronger than had been expected pre-announcement. While there is still some investor uncertainty about certain European markets, management believes healthcare budget and demand issues should be resolved in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our 2025–2027e earnings, and in turn our target price to SEK43 (37).
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