reports
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst
Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead
Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales
We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales
We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK170.00) - 2025 guidance cut significantly
Q1 missed expectations due to a slowdown in Enterprise and a weak US hearing aid market. The 2025 guidance was cut to organic sales growth of -3% to +3% and an EBITA margin of 11–13%, reflecting the implications of tariffs. Guidance was cut for Enterprise and Gaming, but maintained for Hearing, signalling strong confidence in ReSound Vivia. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK170 (200).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression
We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK500.00) - Set for a strong start to the year
We forecast strong momentum in Q1, with 10.0% organic sales growth YOY and a 38.1% adj. EBITDA margin, above the full-year guidance. We expect broad-based growth in the quarter and unchanged 2025 guidance for 5–8% organic sales growth and a 37–38% adj. EBITDA margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK500 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK200.00) - Set for a soft start to the year
We forecast Q1 organic sales growth of 1.7% YOY and an EBITA margin of 11.9%. We see strong traction for ReSound Vivia, but the weak US hearing aid market may weigh on results. For Enterprise, we expect sequential improvement, though Q1 has the toughest YOY comparable in 2025. We expect unchanged guidance, but find the lower end more likely. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK200 (230).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK300.00) - Headwinds set to persist in Q1
We forecast Q1 organic sales growth of just 0.6% YOY, below the full-year guidance, owing to persistent headwinds in wholesale. However, with Managed Care headwinds set to annualise from Q2, better quarters should lie ahead. We expect an unchanged 2025 guidance of 3–7% organic sales growth and DKK4.5bn–4.9bn in EBIT, but we find the lower end most likely. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK300 (320).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Coloplast (Hold, TP: DKK770.00) - Expecting another weak quarter
We expect another soft quarter (7.8% organic revenue growth YOY and a 27.5% EBIT margin), before then improving. We look for unchanged 2024/25 guidance of 8–9% organic sales growth and a c28% EBIT margin before special items. We have cut our 2024/25–2026/27e EPS by 2.8% on average and believe returning to a 30%+ EBIT margin hinges on external factors. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to DKK770 (850).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1
We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2360.00) - Looking beyond HexaBody-CD38
Following Johnson & Johnson’s decision not to opt in for HexaBody-CD38, our focus shifts to the Q1 results and pipeline. For Q1, we forecast sales c0.4% above consensus, an operating profit margin of 20.2% (consensus 20.1%), and net profit c0.7% above consensus. We believe the recent SGO data validates Rina-S as potentially best-in-class and expect a phase III trial in endometrial cancer in H2. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK2,360 (2,400).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery
We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2400.00) - HexaBody-CD38 overhang gone
JNJ has decided not to opt in for HexaBody-CD38 in multiple myeloma, prompting us to remove HexaBody-CD38 from our SOTP. We note Hexabody-CD38 showed better data than Darzalex in the head-to-head trial (ORR 55% for HexaBody-CD38 versus 52% for Darzalex). With the overhang gone, we expect share-price sentiment to improve and see significant value potential. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK2,400 (2,500), based on our SOTP NPV.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK500.00) - Solid momentum set to continue
The 2024 guidance was met, with H2 organic sales growth of c9% YOY and a 36.8% adj. EBITDA margin. We find the 2025 guidance solid at 5–8% organic sales growth YOY (6–9% excluding Russia/Belarus exits) and a 37–38% adj. EBITDA margin. We expect 2025 to be front-end loaded and the proposed acquisition of Feed Enzyme to close during the year (included in our model). We reiterate our BUY and DKK500 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news
Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2500.00) - Next up: HexaBody-CD38 decision
With Q4 revenue of DKK6,441m and operating profit of DKK2,160m, the 2024 guidance was met. The 2025 guidance is for revenue of USD3,340m–3,660m, opex of USD2,055m–2,225m, and operating profit of USD895m-1,365m. We view the risk/reward as favourable going into JNJ’s decision on HexaBody-CD38, and continue to assign a 60% probability of opt in. We reiterate our BUY and DKK2,500 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK500.00) - Strategic acquisition
We view the proposed acquisition of dsm-firmenich’s stake of the Feed Enzyme Alliance as a good strategic fit, expanding Novonesis’ presence across the animal biosolutions value chain. In our view, the EUR1.5bn acquisition price is slightly too high (21.4x EV/EBITDA), but it could be justified, as the business is expected to add c50bp of adj. EBITDA margin accretion in the first full year, with further accretion in the following years. We reiterate our BUY and DKK500 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Focus on partnership discussion...
We expect an uneventful Q4 report, but with investor focus on the ongoing petrelintide partnership discussions. Our base case derives DKK593/share for petrelintide, assuming a profit-sharing agreement in H1. We believe recruitment for the petrelintide phase II trial will be completed in H1 (headline results in Q1 2026e) and look for 2025 opex guidance of DKK1,750m–1,850m. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Credibility rebuilding
We attended a management roundtable discussion in London today. Highlights included focus on the obesity portfolio with the CagriSema results and launch delay, Amycretin, and early-stage candidates. Management remains confident in its ability to scale beyond 2025, aided by the acquisition of Catalent and the resolution of Wegovy and Ozempic supply issues by 2026. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.
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