reports
- Rune Majlund Dahl
GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Time to rebuild credibility
We forecast Q1 organic sales growth of 3.0% YOY (consensus 2.8%) and an EBITA margin of 9.7% (consensus 9.6%). We see Hearing as starting well, and despite still-negative growth in Enterprise, we expect unchanged 2024 guidance. The upcoming CMD offers management scope to rebuild credibility, and we expect updated long-term targets to reflect “One-GN”. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK230 (215).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK440.00) - Bridge-building to higher targets
We look past a well-flagged weak Q1e trading update to the upcoming CMD, where we expect focus on synergies and a potential increase in the long-term EBITDA margin target. We have taken a deep dive into the organic revenue bridge from the legacy divisional forecasts to the new, and the increased focus on Energy, as it is key for Planetary Health Biosolutions’ performance. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but reiterate our DKK440 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance
We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Coloplast (Buy, TP: DKK1050.00) - Awaiting an acceleration in H2e
We forecast Q2 organic revenue growth of 7.6% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by the Chronic Care business segments, and an EBIT margin before special items of 27.6% (consensus 27.5%). We continue to expect QOQ improvements for the coming quarters. We expect the 2023/24 guidance to be unchanged for c8% organic revenue growth, and a 27–28% EBIT margin before special items. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK1,050 (1,000).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2630.00) - Company consensus added
We have updated our Q1 preview with the company consensus (results due at 17:00 CET on 2 May). We forecast sales c3.5% above consensus, an operating profit margin of 23.2% (consensus 21.6%), and net profit c27.1% above on higher net financials. We expect the 2024 guidance to be maintained, but revised ahead of the Q2 results, due to higher opex related to ProfoundBio. We reiterate our BUY and DKK2,630 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2630.00) - M&A strategy in play
We view the acquisition of ProfoundBio (for USD1.8bn) as broadly neutral, strengthening the ADC technology platform and expanding the pipeline in gynaecological oncology. With the acquisition, Genmab acquires ProfoundBio’s technology platform and three assets, including the potentially best-in-class drug, Rina-S. We have added Rina-S to our SOTP valuation at DKK118/share (50% LOA), with potential launch in 2027e. We reiterate our BUY and DKK2,630 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis - Initiation of coverage - All eyes on execution
We initiate coverage of the merged entity (Novozymes and Chr Hansen) with a HOLD and DKK440 target price. We view the 2024 guidance as conservative (5–7% organic growth, c35% adj. EBITDA margin), with the organic growth guidance midpoint below the targeted 6–8% CAGR for 2023–2025 and the adj. EBITDA margin guidance c2% below the 2025 target. We note the 2025 guidance is unchanged, and find the low end of the organic growth target more realistic. We expect investor focus ahead of the CMD on 18 Ju...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - Improved long-term outlook
At its CMD, Demant updated its long-term outlook. It now targets 8–10% LCY growth (7–10%) including 6–8%-points organic growth and c2%-points M&A growth, and still sees incremental EBIT margin expansion. It expects the hearing-aid market to grow 4–6% p.a. in value (2–5%), as ASP is now guided fairly flat. We are positive on the Sirius-based Oticon Intent launch. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK400 (375).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin
At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer
We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2630.00) - Attractive opportunity
With Q4 revenue of DKK4,678m and operating profit of DKK1,670m, the 2023 guidance was met. Genmab has guided for 2024 revenue of DKK18.7bn–20.5bn, opex of DKK12.4bn–13.4bn, and operating profit of DKK4.6bn–7.1bn. We believe investors expected higher costs in 2024, and we see upside potential to consensus peak sales for Tecvayli and Talvey. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK2,630 (2,600).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Coloplast (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Strong start to the year
Q1 organic growth of 7.5% YOY was broadly in line with our forecast and consensus, but the EBIT margin before special items of 27.6% beat our forecast of 26.7% and consensus of 26.8%. Coloplast cut its 2023/24 reported growth guidance from c12% to c11% due to FX, but maintained its guidance for c8% organic growth and a 27–28% EBIT margin before special items. We are positive on the continued roll-out of Luja. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK1,000 (900).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK215.00) - Solid 2024 market outlook
Q4 saw improved underlying market trends, with organic revenue in line with our expectation while profitability missed primarily due to one-offs. Momentum into 2024 gives a solid guidance for organic revenue growth of 2–8%, split between 8–12% for GN Hearing, -3 to +5% for Enterprise and 2–10% for Gaming & Consumer. The EBITA margin guidance is 12–14%, with 18–20% for GN Hearing Core but not specified for the two other divisions. We reiterate our BUY and DKK215 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - New guidance structure
Q4 sales and EBITDA missed our forecasts as strategic brands sales were soft. The 2024 guidance was also soft but in a new better structure, we believe, for revenue growth of 7–10% CER (-4% in DKK) and adj. EBITDA growth of 10–16% in CER (-9% in DKK). We also note the decision to move Lu AF82422 into phase III in MSA. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK375.00) - Communication follow Implants out
The 2023 guidance was reached but with sales and EBIT at the low end. The guidance for 2024 was strong: organic revenue growth of 4–8% YOY and EBIT of DKK4,600m–5,000m. We view the potential divestment of EPOS and management’s comments on the imminent launch of Oticon Intent as positives for the growth and earnings outlooks. We reiterate our BUY, and have increased our target price to DKK375 (355).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK215.00) - Expect a wide 2024 guidance
We believe GN Group is set to reach its 2023 guidance, while investor focus will likely be on the 2024 outlook. We expect an organic revenue growth guidance of 4–8% for GN Hearing and 0–5% for GN Audio. The GN Audio guidance could be split between Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer, but we only expect a group EBITA margin guidance to avoid a SteelSeries-related writedown. We reiterate our BUY and DKK215 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance
The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Focus on guidance and M&A
We expect Lundbeck to reach the high end of its 2023 guidance, and forecast Q4 revenue of DKK5,111m and adj. EBITDA of DKK929m. For 2024, we look for continued good growth across strategic brands (we forecast 12.9%), and we believe investors will focus on the M&A agenda to strengthen the late-stage pipeline. We expect the 2024 guidance to be for revenue of DKK21.0bn–21.6bn and EBITDA of DKK5.7bn–6.3bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK355.00) - 2024 set to be a normalised year
We believe investor focus will be less on the H2 results and more on 2024 guidance. We expect the guidance to be for 3–7% YOY organic revenue growth, c2% M&A revenue growth, a c1% FX headwind, and EBIT of DKK4,400m–4,800m. We believe H2 2023 is set for high market unit growth above the 4–6% structural growth rate on easy comparables, while 2024e looks more normalised at c5% unit growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK355 (335).
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