reports
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Airthings (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdraw...
As a result of DNB Markets acting as financial advisor in conjunction with the company’s announcement (link) of a strategic review prompted by a non-binding letter of intent from Firda AS to explore a potential sale of its business segment assets, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - We remain optimistic
Smartoptics’ Q1 results marked a slower start to the year than we forecast, primarily owing to weaker sales in Devices, which seems to be back to near-term tariff-induced uncertainty. On the flip side, we understand the slowdown seen towards end-Q1 has already caught up again in order inflow, and thus we remain upbeat for the quarters ahead. Following an estimate reduction, we have lowered our target price to NOK27 (30) but reiterate our BUY.
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK142.00) - Mixed set of results
While Telenor reported decent Q1 headline results adjusted for a one-off VAT provision in Norway, slightly above consensus and our estimates, the FCF beat was seemingly driven by lower-quality transitory tailwinds, leaving us still uncertain about its ability to cover its dividends with underlying FCF before M&A this year and in 2026. Thus, given our view of a stretched company and sector valuation, we reiterate our SELL, while we have raised our target price to NOK142 (140).
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Atea (Buy, TP: NOK170.00) - Solid performance
Q1 gross profit and EBIT beat our above-consensus estimates, largely on a higher gross margin offsetting a slightly softer-than-expected top line and more opex than we expected. Furthermore, adjusted for FX losses, underlying earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. In short, we see this setting Atea up to track in line with our above-consensus estimates for 2025–2027 (which we have edged up) as well as multiples expansion. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NO...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - Not too bad given tail-end...
While implied guidance for H1 revenues is ~1–4% below our forecast and consensus, the underlying sequential performance is directionally in line with the broader set of peers to have reported to date. We find this growth and gross margin profile solid, given we are at the tail-end of the life of Nordic’s 10-year-old 55nm technology platform. Combined with the arguably unprecedented level of uncertainty for the company’s customers, we find it achieving a ~50% gross margin and accelerated Cellular...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Expecting accelerated growth
Ahead of Smartoptics’ Q1 results, we continue to expect accelerating top-line momentum following a market recovery and market-share gains, with peers reporting the market is still on the right path. We have made minor estimate revisions due to updated incremental tariffs, headcount increases, and FX fluctuations: our 2025e EPS is 5% lower and 2026–2027e is 3–6% higher. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Atea (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - Set up for a strong run
While we have cut our estimates, we expect improving margins on recently launched frame agreements, continued hardware refresh cycles, and a potential shift in customer preferences for IT infrastructure deployment models to contribute to a return to double-digit EBIT growth, in line with or above its historical track record. Although there is clearly risk inherent in the ongoing trade war and recent competitive dynamics, Atea’s heavy exposure to the Nordic public sector should cushion it from su...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus
We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP: NOK174.00) - Near-term momentum likely ...
While the effects of trade tensions and tariff upheaval remain uncertain, our discussions with industry sources suggest strong, improving order momentum in Q1. Moreover, we expect the recently announced 90-day tariff pause to drive pull-forward of US imports. This has led us to shift our estimates from H2 towards H1. Beyond tariff-induced pull-ins, Dexcom channel replenishment dynamics remain one company-specific source of uncertainty to watch, while we estimate a limited effect. We remain sligh...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Telenor (Hold, TP: NOK140.00) - Upgrade to HOLD
While Telenor reported decent Q4 results, and the new management issued clear communication on near-term priorities in terms of FCF, we see a risk the guided dividend-covering FCF before M&A for 2025 is somewhat reliant on lower-quality tailwinds related to working capital and taxes. However, we have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to NOK140 (125), seeing few near-term downside catalysts and being in line with consensus on 2025–2026e FCF before M&A post-estimate revisions.
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
TietoEVRY (Sell, TP: EUR16.00) - Risk still skewed to the downside
Following the slightly soft Q4 results and 2025 guidance, we have lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by 2–4% and EPS by 1–4%. Furthermore, we interpret the impairment of goodwill in Tech Services and delayed conclusion of the strategic review as a possible indication the potential buyer’s offer leaves the valuation on the low side. Overall, we believe this leaves the risk skewed to the downside; we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to EUR16 (17).
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Top-line momentum accelerating
While our raised 2025–2026e opex offset our increased top-line estimates, we see the return to above-peers growth in Q4 as supportive of Smartoptics’ medium- to longer-term prospects and its ability to gain share in a rebounding market across regions. As such, while our earnings estimates are largely unchanged, we have increased our target price to NOK30 (21), as we expect the accelerating top-line momentum to lead to the market increasingly pricing in Smartoptics’ longer-term prospects. We reit...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Crayon (Hold, TP: NOK112.00) - Seeing more balanced risk/reward
We find the valuation less demanding, even with the uncertainty over how much of the Q4 gross profit headwinds will persist in Q1 and whether Crayon might be approaching a 2017- or 2018-type of year. Moreover, combined with the upside prospects of a potential take-out by SoftwareONE as early as June, we see a more balanced risk/reward. Thus, we have raised our target price to NOK112 (90) and upgraded to HOLD (SELL).
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP: NOK174.00) - Still appears set for a pi...
While we see data points suggesting the strong Q4 results and Q1 guidance are probably seeing some tailwinds from pre-emptive demand pull-forward ahead of tariffs and intensifying trade tensions, we believe underlying momentum is materially stronger than we forecast and thus have significantly raised our estimates across the board for 2025–2026. Therefore, while we see some risk to the magnitude of sequential growth in Q2–Q3e not being in line with normal patterns, we continue to expect 2025 to ...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Nordic Semiconductor (Buy, TP: NOK145.00) - Perception-reality gap set...
We believe 2025 could be the first – and last – year in the next product/technology cycle before the gap between the group’s reported and fundamental competitiveness versus its peers starts to close and the market shifts from being concerned about loss of market share for its nRF52 series towards optimism for its nRF54 series. However, while the market backdrop and downstream inventory are increasingly looking supportive, we still see ongoing near-term legacy risks related to nRF52 competitivene...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Airthings (Buy, TP: NOK2.80) - Channel checks suggest continued Consum...
We are positive ahead of the Q4 results, expecting still-strong momentum in the Consumer segment given supportive channel checks. We have raised our Q4e top line by 7%, putting us ~10% above consensus. However, we are ~3%-points below on the gross margin due to campaign activity, broadened channel mix, and reduced inventory. We believe continued momentum in Consumer would be well received by the market, and reiterate our BUY and NOK2.8 target price.
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Airthings (Buy, TP: NOK2.80) - Still-upbeat despite Q3 misses
Q3 was on the weak side, with misses on sales, the gross margin and EBITDA. On a more positive note, the Q4 sales guidance of USD9.5m–12m was in line with consensus at the mid-point, although it could potentially include a one-off product recall headwind of USD1.2m. We thus remain on the optimistic side as radon and air quality awareness seems to be continuing to grow, at the same time as the execution of cost initiatives appears to be leaving Airthings on track for profitability in H2 2025e. We...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
TietoEVRY (Sell, TP: EUR17.00) - Cost beat, but pressure on revenues
Q3 earnings were above our forecast and consensus, but it looks like a cost-driven beat, as the top line was ~1% below. The company said it saw a deterioration in the IT services market in Q4 and we got the impression from the earnings call that it expects this market softness to persist into 2025. We have cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 1–3%, mainly on lowered top-line estimates. We reiterate our SELL and EUR17 target price, awaiting better top-line momentum and a positive conclusion to the Tec...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Airthings (Buy, TP: NOK2.80) - Headwinds set to persist near-term
Ahead of the Q3 report, we believe persistent US macro headwinds could weigh on near-term momentum. While we expect top-line growth in consumer, there are some signs of weakness in ecommerce data, and macro challenges for business seem to be persisting. While we have cut our estimates and target price to NOK2.8 (4.0), we remain confident in the medium-term outlook, with strong underlying demand in consumer, and management executing well on cost reduction towards profitability. We reiterate our B...
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Set for return to growth
We are seeing early signs of recovery in Smartoptics’ markets following a challenging downcycle, and see a plausible path to revenue growth for the company from Q4. While we have made material cuts to our estimates, we continue to like the story on our view of an approaching upcycle in optical networking equipment and what appears to be AI-induced growth in demand for bandwidth in DCI and enterprise networking. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.
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