reports
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Halyk Bank: efficient frontier (stays BUY)
We have revised our estimates, raised our price target (PT) for Halyk Bank’s GDRs to USD 28.8 and maintained our BUY on the stock. Halyk remains undervalued and trades at 2.7x P/E and 0.8x P/TBV on our 2025E estimates (3.9x P/E and 1.2x P/TBV at target), with top-notch earnings power (ROTEs of 30-33% in our explicit forecast horizon) and efficiency (a 17% C/I), and ample capital (assets over equity at only 6x in 4Q24). We expect the dividend yield to remain in a range of 18-23% for 2025-27E. Bet...
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Bank of Cyprus: income on tap, with rerating potential (stays BUY)
We have finetuned our estimates for Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) and rolled our model forward. We estimate a two-year IRR of around 16% on the stock, even without multiple expansion – a scenario we view as realistic, based on our valuation. BOCH is one of the best capitalised and most liquid banks in the Eurozone (a 49% L/D ratio and a 19.2% CET1 for BOCH vs. the 85% and 15.4% unweighted averages for SX7E). Recently, the bank upped its payout target to 70% (a 2025E total shareholder yield of 11% on the...
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Turkish Banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, I...
Despite the near-term relief from expected rate cuts, we believe that the Turkish banks continue to operate in a structurally-challenging environment – characterised by cut-throat competition, stringent regulation, and bouts of macro uncertainty – where the risks to their long-term economic viability, particularly in the face of today’s high cost of capital, remain high. We would seek better entry points, which err on the side of caution regarding the banks’ long-term earnings power and do not r...
- Alessio Chiesa
- Can Demir
- Raffaella Tenconi
WOOD Flash – Georgia macro: insights on a Ukraine deal spillover to Ge...
Following the acceleration of a potential peace deal in Ukraine, Georgian assets have been among the top performers over the past month, reflecting the market’s optimism over the possible ceasefire or deal between Russia and the United States. From 21 January until today (18 February), Bank of Georgia (BUY, PT GBP 52.3) has gained 17%, while TBC Bank (BUY, PT GBP 38.0) has surged by 32%, outperforming the broader EM banks significantly and even the Polish WIG banks. While the market appears to b...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Bank of Cyprus: 4Q24 results and 2025E guidance highlight...
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) has reported EUR 108m in net income in 4Q24, 9% below our EUR 117m estimate for the quarter. The revenues were in line with our estimate and the NII also held up stronger than expected (7% higher than our estimate). The delta was due to the higher-than-expected provisions (EUR 20m higher). This includes a EUR 13m provision, which management has set aside for legacy litigation exposures. We understand that this provision is one-off in nature. The bank will return 50% of its ...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – TBC Bank: 4Q24 results and conference call
TBC has announced GEL 335m in net income for 4Q24. Before the one-off write-down of its Azerbaijan business, which is now held for sale, the net income stood at GEL 344m. The net income consensus was at GEL 325m (a 3% beat in reported and a 6% beat in adjusted terms), while our forecast was at GEL 317m (a 6% beat in reported and an 8% beat in adjusted terms). The beat was related mainly to the trading income (up 64% yoy in 4Q and +37% yoy in 12M24), as well as the somewhat lower than expected CO...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Piraeus Financial Holdings: first take on potential Ethni...
Piraeus announced yesterday (6 February) that it has entered exclusive talks with CVC to acquire 70% of Ethniki Insurance, Greece’s largest insurer. While Ethniki’s 2024E financials are not out yet, based on the company’s 2023 adjusted ROTE and the announced EUR 469m price tag for 70% of the company, we estimate that Piraeus will pay between 8-9x P/E and 1.3-1.6x P/TBV for 2024E. According to Bloomberg, Piraeus is trading at 0.65x P/BV and 5.3x P/E multiples for 2024E. The bank expects a CET1 im...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Bank of Cyprus: 3Q24 highlights
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) announced EUR 130m in net income in 3Q24, bringing the 9M24 figure to EUR 401m. The bank grew its net income by 15% in 9M24 and had a ROTE of c.25%, with an 18.5% CET1. In our view, the 9M24 trends indicate upside risk for our 2024E and 2025E estimates. We believe that the market is still pricing in a tough long-term ROE scenario for BOCH, with 0.8x P/TBV and 4.3x P/E, on our 2024E estimates (not updated post 3Q24), which we believe is not on the horizon, with the current E...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – TBC Bank: 3Q24 results and conference call
TBC has announced net income of GEL 347m for 3Q24 (GEL 340m after the Uzbekistan minorities). The bank’s 3Q24 net income was 18% above our estimate (GEL 295m) and 9% above the consensus (GEL 318m). In 3Q24 and 9M24, TBC grew its bottom line by 14% yoy. The 3Q24 beat was driven by the NII (GEL 18m higher than our estimate and GEL 9m higher than the consensus) and fees (GEL 18m higher than our estimate and GEL 19m higher than the consensus), as well as strong trading income, up nearly 50% yoy. The...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash: Bank of Cyprus - relists on the ATHEX - change of PT curre...
We have changed the currency of our price target (PT) for Bank of Cyprus from GBP to EUR, as the company has delisted its GBP-denominated quoted stock on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and relisted on the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX). Our new EUR-denominated PT for Bank of Cyprus is EUR 5.83 (GBP 4.90 previously). The company’s new Bloomberg ticker on the ATHEX is BOCHGR GA.
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Bank of Cyprus: room for further rerating (stays BUY)
Following the 2Q24 results, BOCH raised its 2024E guidance, driven by better-than-expected trends and a more favourable interest rate outlook. We have revised our 2024E and 2025E net income estimates by 14% and 4%, respectively. The bank plans to improve its market visibility by delisting from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and relisting on the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX). Despite a 24% rerating post-2Q24 earnings, we believe the valuation remains attractive, with our 2024E multiples of 4.8x ...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – TBC Bank: 2Q24 results and conference call
TBC has reported GEL 329m in net income for 2Q24 (up 12% yoy), broadly in line with the GEL 314m consensus and our GEL 321m estimate. In terms of the core lines, we see no major deviations from the consensus or our estimates, with the provisions being an exception, as the COR in Georgia was as low as 30bpts, on the back of a sizable recovery (16bpts benefit) and a positive macro outlook (the bank has revised its 2024E Georgia GDP growth expectations from 6.4% to 7.4%). TBC also announced a GEL 2...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Bank of Cyprus: 2Q24 highlights
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) has reported EUR 138m in net income in 2Q24 (EUR 270m in 1H24) and posted a positive set of results, particularly on the NIM and COR fronts compared to our 2024E expectations and its own guidance. Management has also upgraded the guidance and announced its intentions to delist from LSE and relist on the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX), to find more liquidity for the stock. We rate Bank of Cyprus a BUY, with a price target (PT) of GBp 451/share, and we like the results. The ba...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Greek banks: 2Q24E previews (reporting season starts on 3...
The Greek banks’ earnings season will kick off on 31 July, with Piraeus Financial Holdings and Eurobank Ergasias Services’ results, followed by National Bank of Greece on 1 August and Alpha Services and Holdings on 2 August. On the adjusted / before one-offs net income level, for the sector as a whole, we expect an 11% qoq contraction and 6% yoy growth. We believe that trading income is likely to be a significant factor behind the qoq decline in earnings. We do not expect radical qoq changes in ...
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Georgian Banks: from Georgia to the region (Bank of Georgia and TBC Ba...
We have revised our valuations for the Georgian banks, and dived deep into Uzbekistan and TBC Bank Group’s (TBC) Uzbekistan business. Uzbekistan is an attractive place to do banking, with a booming consumer business, and the case for TBC’s Uzbekistan businesses is clear, in our view. With this report, we also begin to monitor Ameria Bank’s numbers separately, and include the bank in our SOTP valuation for Bank of Georgia (BGEO). Ameria is the top bank in Armenia, which BGEO acquired for attracti...
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
NLB Group: a tale of growth and expansion (BUY - transfer of coverage)
In this report, we transfer coverage of NLB Group (NLB), maintaining our BUY rating, but increasing our price target (PT) significantly, to EUR 176.0 (from EUR 100.0), offering potential upside of 56%. NLB has been expanding its position in all its key markets for several years, and is now well positioned to benefit from a supportive regional macro backdrop and, in our view, further market consolidation in the region’s banking sector. Management remains very optimistic about the bank’s future an...
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Bank of Cyprus: keep calm and return capital (stays BUY)
We still like Bank of Cyprus (BOCH). Despite the lack of growth, we estimate that it might achieve a 20% CET1 (17.4% in 4Q23) and a >12% ROTE (23% in 2023) in 2026E, where the 500bps of excess capital understates the earnings power in our forecasts. Even without special dividends, which might be possible due to the mismatch between growth plans and capital, we believe that BOCH is still compelling, as long as it stays broadly on track with its capital return plans. Our new price target (PT) is G...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – Bank of Cyprus: 1Q24 highlights
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH) reported EUR 133m in net income, and we believe that the bank has made a better start than its conservative guidance for the year. BOCH targets a >17% ROTE, if it adjusts its capital to a 15% CET1 ratio. In 1Q24, on our calculations, the bank had over a 23% ROTE, with a 17.1% CET1 ratio. Although we knew that the bank was defensive in its 2024E guidance, 1Q24 gave us more assurances that BOCH has little risk of missing our EUR 476m 2024E net income estimate. During the conf...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash – TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call
TBC has reported GEL 296m in net income for 1Q24, broadly in line with our estimate and the company-collected consensus of GEL 292m. We believe that 1Q24 was an uneventful quarter, with a robust 28.5% ROTE. As flagged by the bank previously, the NIM continued to normalise. Fee growth, at 13% yoy, was below our expectations, due to the timing of the VISA and Mastercard cashback. Lower-than-expected risk costs mitigated this impact. In our view, TBC is on track to meet our full-year GEL 1.2bn est...
- Can Demir
WOOD Flash - National Bank of Greece: 1Q24 highlights
NBG has reported EUR 358m in net income in 1Q24, with a 9% beat vs. the EUR 328m consensus. On a one-off adjusted basis, NBG’s EUR 380m net income from continuing operations is an 11% beat vs. the consensus (EUR 343m). The beat was due mainly to trading and other income (EUR 60m actual vs. the EUR 35m consensus). There is also a small EUR 10m beat in the core revenues (NII+fees). Overall, we see this as a decent quarter, particularly from the point of view of the capital generation. The bank add...
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