reports
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Progressing as planned
We consider Scatec’s Q1 report a solid status report, showing that the equity story is evolving as planned with: 1) asset sales reducing net debt on a corporate level; and 2) significant scale on growth through 2027e, with ~NOK16bn in remaining EPC revenues to be recognised from projects under construction and in the company’s backlog. The stock is trading at around our core NAV, suggesting that investors are currently getting unannounced growth at no cost. We reiterate our BUY and have raised o...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Purus (No_rec, TP: NOK) - In rough waters
Hexagon Purus’s weak Q1 results underpinned the stark market challenges for its hydrogen- and battery-related businesses. Seeing a liquidity runway into Q2 2026 at the current underlying cost base, we welcome the company’s aim of further cost cuts to preserve cash, and hope to see the results of the ongoing portfolio review soon. However, we still believe a restructuring of the company’s NOK2.1bn in convertible debt is needed. We have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 5% on the weaker-than-expected Q1 res...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK315.00) - Below consensus on Q1e EBITDA
We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK732m, 13% below Bloomberg consensus, on lower-than-normal wind speeds. Following the sale of UWL and potentially more flavour on the company’s capital allocation strategy that could include new business areas, we expect focus to be on capital allocation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK315 (310). The stock looks attractively valued, in our opinion, at a P/NAV of 0.67x.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Purus (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Uncertain outcome for equity
While we consider cash-preservation measures the right move to counter the currently weak market, we do not believe these will be enough if the headwinds persist. The NOK2.1bn convertible debt (with ~8% PIK interest) is more than our valuation of the equity, and in our view structural measures are needed to recover any remaining value for shareholders. We consider a sale of non-core assets such as the US BVI business as well as restructuring of the convertible debt likely – and necessary. Given ...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cloudberry Minor model adjustments
We have updated our Q1 proportionate EBITDA forecast to NOK76m, based on 196GWh quarterly power production. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK13.5 target price. The Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 13 May.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK24.00) - Keeps adding backlog
Ahead of Q1 results, we forecast EBITDA of NOK49m (no consensus available). We believe Cambi is progressing well with three contract additions and one expansion, underpinning the strong market potential, and see opportunities for further additions in the not-too-distant future. We reiterate our BUY and NOK24 target price, and view the stock as attractive, trading at 2025–2027e P/Es of 15–9x.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Agilyx (Buy, TP: NOK37.00) - CCC construction in focus
With key H2 2024 numbers already pre-announced, we expect focus in conjunction with Agilyx’s 2024 annual report release to be on the progress of the two Cyclyx circularity centres (CCCs) under construction as well as further growth opportunities. We see room for more CCCs, but do not expect any further FIDs until the first unit has commissioned. We also see opportunities elsewhere, such as potential further work for Toyo Styrene and through the recently established Plastyx JV. We reiterate our B...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - US regulatory risks still in focus
We forecast Q1 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.0bn, largely in line with consensus, with offshore wind speeds below normal. We continue to see headwinds in the US, and expect focus to be on the impact from US tariffs and potential construction halts on the US wind farms under construction, as well as other risks in the country. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and believe uncertainties related to the US operations, farm-down execution, and liquidity need to be resolved fo...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK92.00) - Benefiting from scale in growth
We forecast Q1 proportionate EBITDA 17% above consensus, which we believe likely does not fully reflect announced divestment gains. We see the company benefiting from scale in growth in the coming years and have raised our 2025–2026e proportionate EBITDA by 9% on a higher D&C contribution. With Scatec trading at a discount to underlying values, and delivering on growth and its divestment programme, we find it offers a solid investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price t...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Cautious on near-term outlook
We are significantly below consensus on Q1e EBITDA, owing to the challenging US truck market, with the uncertainty in demand, costs, and regulations resulting in lower demand for new trucks and technology shifts taking longer. With most of its business in the US, we consider Hexagon Composites vulnerable. As a result, we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 9–15%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK38 (50) on the weaker near-term outlook.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK24.00) - Investment case looks still intact
We view the Q4 execution issues and weak cash flow as short-term noise, given Cambi’s historical execution and preventive measures to be introduced for similar cost overruns, and its decision to exit the less profitable retail soil market. With weak cash flow and part of the dividend delayed until autumn on postponed milestone payments, we believe it would benefit from maintaining more cash to manage a higher working capital build. We still see a solid business case, and reiterate our BUY and NO...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK310.00) - Progressing well
With the Q4 earnings miss due to lower power production than expected on downtime and curtailments largely outside the company’s control, we believe the main takeaways were solid underlying developments, with: 1) Fred. Olsen Windcarrier (FOWIC) firming up a contract at accretive economics increasing its backlog by 56% QOQ; 2) another onshore wind farm reaching an FID; and 3) a sharpened capital allocation strategy. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, with the stock looking attractively...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK24.00) - Waiting for orders
We expect Q4 EBITDA of NOK45m, reflecting continued execution on the projects in Cambi’s backlog, as well as a DPS of NOK0.7 to be proposed for 2024. After a period of soft order intake, we see solid prospects in the next few years for sizeable new orders across several markets, which is key for supporting the company’s business case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK24 (23) on slightly higher estimates. We find the stock attractively valued on 2026–2027e P/Es of 14.9–...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cloudberry (Buy, TP: NOK13.50) - Powering forward
Adjusted for NOK113m in gains on intra-company asset sales, Cloudberry reported proportionate Q4 EBITDA of NOK52m, 21% below our estimate and 19% below consensus, largely on lower-than-expected realised power prices. The company’s projects are on track, with construction of the Sundby and Munkhyttan wind parks complete and development of Nees Hede progressing, now as a slightly larger project. We reiterate our BUY and NOK13.5 target price. The stock is trading at an attractive 32% discount to as...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK50.00) - In a transition year
2025 looks set to be a transition year, with a slower roll-out of natural gas trucks and low Mobile Pipeline activity hampering H1. Thus, we have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 24%, to the top of the guidance of NOK640m–740m that we consider to be conservative. Seeing the long-term investment case as still intact and hearing welcomed commentary on no further financial support to Hexagon Purus, we consider yesterday’s sell-off to be an overreaction. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Purus (Sell, TP: NOK1.80) - Hurt by low demand visibility
While we welcome Hexagon Purus’ efforts to minimise cash burn with the announced cost cuts and business portfolio review, we see it being hurt by stark market headwinds. We believe other levers to preserve cash could be divestments of the US zero-emission businesses, where the cash burn is highest. We have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 20–13%, but highlight a broad scope of outcomes (also on the negative side). We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK1.8 (2.9); we see it trading...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK310.00) - Below consensus for Q4e
We expect Q4 to be affected by slightly lower wind speeds than normal and two FOWIC vessels at yard. Our Q4e EBITDA is NOK831m, 8% below Bloomberg consensus (due to a lower contribution from Wind Services). With some idle capacity on the FOWIC vessels in 2026–2027, we expect focus to be on future contracting opportunities. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, and believe the stock is trading attractively at a P/NAV of 0.7x.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - Walking a tightrope
Although we welcome the message of disciplined value-focused growth and no equity needed, we do not consider Ørsted to be out of the woods yet, as we still see financial and US-related risks. On our estimates, the lowered capex guidance just about gets the company to the low end of its FFO/NIBD target, leaving limited room for error ahead. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and still struggle to see a meaningful valuation upside despite the stock trading at an 15% discount to our SOT...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Few surprises in Q4
With the Q4 results largely in line with expectations and the mid-point of the 2025 EBITDA guidance 4% below consensus likely due to assumptions about the timing of asset sales and proceeds, we consider Scatec’s Q4 report neutral. We have made limited estimate revisions following the results; we reiterate BUY and have raised our target price to NOK90 (86) based on a higher contribution from ancillary services in the Philippines.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK52.00) - Consensus too conservative on...
We believe consensus is too conservative on realised margins; we are 8% above on Q4e EBITDA and 8–9% above on 2025–2026e EBITDA. We still consider X15N fuel system orders key for our investment case. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK52 (54). We still view the stock as attractively valued at 2025–2026e EV/EBITDAs of 8.2–6.6x.
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