reports
- Guy Sips
Materialise FIRST LOOK : 4Q25 results
We will update our model as Materialise expects FY26 to grow to a range of €273m to €283m (KBCSe € 282.5m). Materialise will continue investing in its Materialise Medical and Software segments while maintaining disciplined cost control and optimization, in particular in its Materialise Manufacturing segment and in its overhead. As a result, Materialise expects its FY26 Adj EBIT to reach € 10m to € 12m (KBCSe € 14.5m). FY25 revenue remained stable at € 267.6m (KBCSe € 269.3m), fuelled by stron...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
Kinepolis Group Lower results, as expected, impacted by less visitors ...
Against the backdrop of ongoing restructuring and recapitalization in Hollywood, Kinepolis received in FY25 -5.8% y/y visitors or 30.7m, down. Kinepolis Group indicated that -although 2025 saw some notable successes- mainly in the animation and horror genres, the year was affected by a less favourable comparison base, partly due to the exceptional success of 'Inside Out 2' and several French films in 2024. We maintain our positive stance (Buy, € 42 Target Price) as Kinepolis highlighted that F...
- Wim Hoste
AB InBev Pouring beer and returning cash
Whilst ABI's beer volumes have been impacted in the past three years by a mix of country-specific and broader affordability issues and possibly also a changing attitude towards alcohol consumption in some mature markets, we see green shoots and expect volume growth to resume this year, which should support investor sentiment. We still see ABI as the undisputed leader in the beer space, with leading market shares in many of the world's largest profit pools, ongoing digitization and premiumization...
- Guy Sips
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
Dynamic Top Pick List update Removing Aedifica
We remove Aedifica from our Dynamic Top Pick list after we updated our model after the FY25 reporting. Since we upgraded Aedifica early November from Hold to Buy, it outperformed the EPRA developed index by 15,1%. We expect the momentum to continue on a positive outcome from the initial exchange period and a potential MSCI inclusion. However we see limited upside to our € 80,0 fair value so we cut our recommendation from BUY to ACCUMULATE.
- Guy Sips
Barco Key question ahead: Is the order slowdown temporary?
Barco's FY25 results were broadly in line with market expectations, demonstrating the company's ability to grow sales and margins despite a challenging macro environment. However, the performance also revealed vulnerabilities—most notably a significant decline in order intake and a sharp reduction in the order book, both of which signal weakening forward demand and warrant close attention. Cinema was the strongest division, while Healthcare underperformed. EBITDA slightly exceeded expectations,...
- Guy Sips
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
DSM-Firmenich Biting the ANH bullet
The long awaited divestment of ANH disappointed on deal value (EV € 2.2bn, including a potential earn-out of up to € 0.5bn), but creates a group with a much more comprehensive activity and earnings profile. We still appreciate dsm-firmenich for its broad portfolio and market leading positions in consumer-oriented businesses in Nutrition, Health and Beauty. We remind that we have already lowered our target price upon the ANH divestment announcement last week so we maintain our current € 82 target...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Cementir Holding FY25 Recurring EBITDA +1%, guidance calls for 0-5% gr...
FY25 Non-GAAP EBITDA jumped by 15% in absolute terms or by +1% on a recurring base (excluding incidentals). FY26 guidance calls for Recurring EBITDA to be flat to up c.5%, despite severe winter conditions in ao Nordics & Baltics at the start of the year. Cementir's diversified footprint with some key regional strongholds like Denmark and Belgium along with a deeply vertically integrated model in those regions allows to realize solid profitability, as witnessed by the current solid Recurring EBIT...
- Guy Sips
DEME Saltchuk takes peer Great Lakes Dredge & Dock private for $1.2bn ...
Saltchuk a privately held US group active in freight transport, marine services and energy distribution, has agreed to acquire Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp (GLDD), an US offshore energy and dredging contractor often viewed as a peer to DEME due to its similar infrastructure-focused marine activities. The deal values Great Lakes at $1.2bn equity and $1.5bn transaction value, with Saltchuk offering US$17.00 per share in cash—a 25% premium to the company's 90-day VWAP and above its all-time hig...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Ontex [FY25 EBITDA at low end of guidance, FY26 guidance of +10% EBITD...
4Q adjusted EBITDA dropped by 32% while FY25 adjusted EBITDA landed at 175.6m, which is at the low end of the € 175-180m guidance given at the time of the profit warning in December. FY26 guidance calls for a 10% increase in adjusted EBITDA to c. € 193m which is about 2% below our and consensus forecasts. We remind that Ontex recently decided to accelerate its CEO transition plan with Mr Nielly, previously President of Ontex Europe, having been appointed as the new CEO already in the course of J...
- Wim Hoste
DSM-Firmenich FIRST LOOK: 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA -4%, no FY26 guidance y...
4Q adj EBITDA for the continuing operations dropped by 4% y/y and was about 4% below our forecast and 3% below consensus. Dsm-firmenich's did not give FY26 guidance at this stage but promised to do so in the upcoming Investor Event (12 March). We remind that the long awaited and recently announced divestment of ANH disappointed on deal value (EV € 2.2bn, including a potential earn-out of up to € 0.5bn), but creates a group with a much more comprehensive activity and earnings profile. We still ap...
- Wim Hoste
AB InBev FIRST LOOK: FY25 EBITDA +4.9%, FY26 guidance of 4-8% organic ...
4Q organic top line and EBITDA growth was slightly better than consensus. ABI FY26 guidance of 4-8% organic EBITDA growth is in line with the mid term guidance and our & consensus estimates at c. +5%. Total FY25 dividend is upped from € 1 to € 1.15, including an earlier interim dividend of € 0.15. We still see AB InBev as the undisputed leader in the beer market, with leading market shares in many markets, ongoing digitization and premiumization trends allowing to generate healthy free cash flow...
- Guy Sips
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Heineken FIRST LOOK: FY25 operating profit +4.4%, FY26 guidance of 2-6...
Heineken's FY25 top line and operating profit figures were slightly better than our forecasts with operating profit in absolute terms in line with consensus. Heineken guides again for sizeable savings efforts in FY26 with operating profit growth guidance calling for a 2-6% range (vs our and consensus forecasts of c. 5%). We still appreciate Heineken for the sizeable self-help initiatives which should support organic earnings growth in the coming years, but acknowledge that the bumpier volume evo...
- Guy Sips
Lotus Bakeries Three Continents, One Momentum: Lotus Turns Up the Heat
We updated our model after Lotus Bakeries delivered in FY25 a 10% revenue increase to a very nice € 1,355m (KBCSe 1,355m, CSS 1,346m), driven by continued strong volume growth in 2H25 for both Lotus Biscoff (57% of branded revenues, +13% y/y) and Lotus Natural Foods (25% of branded, +17% y/y). Lotus Bakeries highlighted that the partnerships with Mondelez advanced strongly, contributing positively to the 2025 revenue. By the end of 2025, Biscoff production expanded to three continents. We welco...
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