reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets
With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos Q4 FY24 review: Inflationary telco market
Japan’s mobile sector accelerated again in Q4 and we think is heading to above inflation. With both KDDI and DCM recently announcing price increases the environment is increasingly benign and should be helped by NTT’s recent acquisition of SBI Sumishin Net Bank. Our recent trip to Japan highlighted how positive the environment is; NTT stays our preferred pick, with KDDI closely behind.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +165%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slo...
TOWR reported on Friday evening. Tower revenue growth slowed and we expect this to continue over the near term as a result of consolidation. To some extent, this will be offset by growing contribution from FTTT and FTTH businesses as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
NTT (Buy, TP: ¥215, +38%) NTT to acquire SBI Sumishin Bank and a mino...
As has been widely rumoured, NTT has offered to acquire up to 66% of SBI Sumishin Bank (7163-JP), in a bid to strengthen its financial services offering. The offer price (¥3,615) represents a 10% premium to yesterday’s price, but actually around 10% below today’s closing price.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
CelcomDigi – Q1 25 Quick Take: Topline recovery delayed by prepaid sof...
What’s New: Recovery in service revenue trend was delayed by Prepaid competition although prepaid net additions were encouraging. EBITDA growth improved to flat while underlying EBIT was up 6.3% YoY. Management reiterated its FY25 guidance and for it to work, ARPU needs to stabilise given that prepaid subscriber base is now rising again. In terms of shareholder remuneration, the company proposed a quarterly dividend of RM 3.7sen, which is unchanged from previous quarter.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Singtel (Buy, S$4.6, +16%) Q4 FY25 Quick Take: Buyback announced
As we hoped, Singtel has (finally) announced up to S$2bn (US$1.55bn) in share buybacks over the next three years until FY28. Additionally, this year’s dividend per share rose by 13% to S17.0 cents (includes S4.7cents VRD vs S3.8 in FY24).
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $7.7, +41%) – Q1 25: Strong start to the year; Rw...
IHS Towers has reported a strong set of result. Revenue and EBITDA came in above consensus by quite some margin and Q1 numbers trended above the FY25 guide across the board. The company has also announced the sale of its Operations in Rwanda.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Takeaways from Meetings with the Japanese Telcos + Rakuten in Tokyo. D...
We met with all 3 of the incumbent Japanese Telcos & Rakuten in Tokyo last week, as well as visiting Osaka to talk to NTT in more depth about IOWN. Overall, we remain bullish on Japanese telcos operationally and buyers of all three incumbents. NTT remains our top pick followed by KDDI.
- Chris Hoare
Takeaways from Meetings with the Korean Telcos in Seoul. KT to KRW 105...
We met with all 3 of the Korean Telcos in Seoul over the last couple of days. All 3 remain committed to “Value-up”. However, far the biggest impact is on KT who’s cash flow is dramatically improving. LG is also likely to have a strong year, and we think profitability has turned a corner.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Millicom (Buy, TP: $46, +31%) On a path to $1bn EFCF. Upgrade target ...
Following our day spent with Millicom in Miami and Q1 results we review our model. Assuming the Colombian deal closes we now see the company on a path to $1bn EFCF once synergies are delivered. Dividends are likely to rise to over $4/share, driving the shares towards $50. We remain Buyers and upgrade our price target to US$46.
- Chris Hoare
Rakuten (Reduce, ¥510, -42%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Mixed, mobile momentum...
Profits disappointed despite revenue being 1% ahead of expectations, partly driven by one-off non cash hedging costs. Mobile remains weak as sequential improvement in MNO revenue slowed materially, as net adds slowed and ARPU fell sequentially
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +22%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Good revenue growth; big b...
KDDI reported a better top-line, and generous shareholder remuneration. However, guidance is largely in line and leaves us wondering what happens after the company hits it in March ’26. Within this space, NTT remains our preferred pick on potential upside catalysts (IOWN revenue optionality, NTT Data and Fixed line rebound) while KDDI remains a close second with a ¥3,150 price target.
- Chris Hoare
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