reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Telkom Indonesia (Buy, IDR 4,500, +76%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Buybac...
Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.
- Chris Hoare
China Unicom (Buy, TP: HK$ 13.2, +52%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slower reven...
Service revenue growth slowed from a strong Q4 but profit trends improved, and EPS growth was better. Not disclosed but cash flow should be strongly higher on these figures given declining capex. Given EPS drives the dividend this seems positive to us, and we remain Buyers.
- Chris Hoare
Malaysian Telcos Q4 24 review: Soft Q4; guidance suggests recovery on...
4Q24 service revenue trend remained soft off prepaid weakness, partly offset by Fibre and Enterprise momentum which enabled Maxis to grow faster than CelcomDigi. Industry EBITDA was weaker off a higher comparable base, but guidance suggests a recovery in 2025 in particular for CelcomDigi.
- Chris Hoare
Brazilian Telcos Solid quarter, improving shareholder remuneration; Q...
Q4 was a solid quarter for the Brazilian market, despite a small slowdown in revenue and EBITDA growth. Claro outperformed peers again from an MSR and an EBITDA growth standpoint, Vivo was the outperformer from a KPI perspective. Prepaid remained under pressure and will likely remain challenged this year. However, postpaid continued to trend well.
- Chris Hoare
VEON (Buy, TP: $65/ADR, +65%) Investor Call Feedback
We hosted a call with the CEO of VEON (Kaan Terzioglu) and CFO (Burak Ozer) on Wednesday. Management came across as confident that tariff-induced volatility is unlikely to materially derail their business model, and continues to see the regulatory and competitive pendulum swinging in their direction it seems. We continue to see substantial upside in the stock and retain our Buy recommendation and US$65/ADR price target.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 24 review: Still growing; continued fall in absolut...
Chinese Telcos saw service revenue return to mid-single digits growth in 4Q24. Despite a blip in EBITDA trend, the industry ended 2024 with 6% earnings growth which translated to higher dividend payouts (CM: 73%, CT: 72%, CU: 60%).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS (Buy, TP: US$7.7, +80%) - Investor Call Feedback - 31st March 2025
We had a bullish call last week with IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR Robert Berg. Despite tariff-related chaos the stock has performed well recently (+50% ytd) reflecting the better environment in Nigeria as well as action the company itself has taken to improve value, but we still think it looks undervalued and retain our Buy recommendation and US$7.7 price target.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190;...
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese and EM Telcos 3 Action points for investors in EM and Japane...
No doubt investors are busy fighting fires. But additional to our thoughts from last week we thought it might be helpful to offer 3 further action points for investors in EM & Japanese Telcos that we would be taking in response to market turmoil. Very brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Japanese Telcos Tariffs – Impact on Global EM & Ja...
Perhaps the biggest surprise from last night’s White House announcement was the scale of tariffs imposed on Asian exporters (and South Africa). Being an ally of America provided no benefit with Thailand (36%) facing higher tariffs than China (34%). By contrast, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are less negatively impacted, and may even benefit overall from dollar weakness. We run through likely implications for our coverage in Global EM and Japan. Spoiler alert: we see Rakuten as most negati...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Vodafone Idea (Neutral, TP: INR 10, +20%) Government to more than dou...
Over the weekend, Vodafone Idea announced that the government will more than double their equity stake to 48.99% from 22.6% through the conversion of INR 369.5bn (US$ 4.3bn) in spectrum dues. As of this writing, the stock spiked up by 19% today. Further to what we had previously written on the nationalisation of Vodafone Idea, we lay out our initial thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +156%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Supp...
Numbers were decent off its higher growth adjacent businesses where non-Tower contribution now stands at 33% of sales. While near-term tower headwind is anticipated now that the merger between XL and Smartfren is approved, TOWR’s exposure to FTTT and FTTH should act as support as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
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