Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply China's August monetary data saw a modest mom recovery in new credit, but underlying private sector credit demand remained weak. M1 growth accelerated to 6.0% yoy, while M2 held steady at 8.8% yoy. New bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.59t, while new TSF rose to Rmb2.57t, supported by government bond issuance. However, outstanding TSF and yoy loan growth slowed. The PBOC’s Rmb600b reverse repo will boost near-term liquidity, but it remains to be seen if loan su...
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply China's August monetary data saw a modest mom recovery in new credit, but underlying private sector credit demand remained weak. M1 growth accelerated to 6.0% yoy, while M2 held steady at 8.8% yoy. New bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.59t, while new TSF rose to Rmb2.57t, supported by government bond issuance. However, outstanding TSF and yoy loan growth slowed. The PBOC’s Rmb600b reverse repo will boost near-term liquidity, but it remains to be seen if loan sub...
Amid US chip ban uncertainties, Baidu Inc's (Baidu) Kunlun chip is well-positioned to capture emerging AI chip localisation opportunities. Meanwhile, Robotaxi offers significant growth potential, with Baidu emerging as the global leader in driverless commercial ride-hailing. In cloud, Baidu differentiates itself through its full-stack AI capabilities and a resilient, recurring software revenue stream. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of HK$135.00 (US$150.00).
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...
Top Stories Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Product-level data was mixed, with motor vehicles and hi-tech exports showing strength. Looking ahead, the trade outlook remains cautious, with ...
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: AI: Accelerating AI+cloud hyperscaler growth; AI agent reshaping industries. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment. Update Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$10.95/Target: HK$12.70): Takeaways from the Lenovo Future Center tour in Shenzhen. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy 2Q25 Results Wrap-up: A S...
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment. WHAT’S NEW Ev...
China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H25 on heavy investments. Macau Gaming: Aug 25 GGR sets another post-pandemic high. Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$47.04/Target: HK$51.00): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses expectations on muted fee and larger NIM compression. Downgrade to HOLD. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb23.63/Target: Rmb24.00): 2Q25: In line with profit guidance. Demand and profitability to improve in 2H25. Upgrade ...
During Kuaishou 2025 Guanghe Creator Conference, management outlined that AI strategies are driving progress across commercialisation, user experience, ecosystem governance, and monetisation efficiency. We believe the company’s solid monetisation progress and continuous strategies in boosting ads will help to cushion the soft macro backdrop and competitive environment. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$89.00.
Alibaba reported strong 1QFY26 results. Revenue grew 2% yoy to Rmb247.7b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb33.5b, down 18% yoy, in line with our forecast, with net margin of 14.8%, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In the coming quarters, management expects to see: a) solid CMR growth as the company leverages on the Rmb30t addressable market, and b) strong cloud growth fuelled by AIrelated demand. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$170.00 ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$115.70/Target: HK$170.00): 1QFY26: Better-than-expected CMR and cloud revenue growth; encouraging quick commerce outlook. BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$114.40/Target: HK$90.00): 2Q25: Earnings down over 30% yoy/qoq, missing estimates on margins. Downgrade from BUY to SELL. Cut target price from HK$142.00 to HK$90.00. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$41.18/Target: HK$51.80): 1H25: Margin misses due to product mix shift; growth story remains unchange...
TCOM’s 2Q25 earnings were better than expected. 2Q25 net revenue rose 16.2% yoy to Rmb14.9b, in line with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit inched up 1% yoy to Rmb5b, beating consensus forecasts by 15%. Net margin shrank 5ppt yoy to 33.8%, better than consensus estimates. TCOM guided 3Q25 revenue growth of 12-17% yoy to Rmb18.1b, in line with consensus expectations. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$725.00 (US$94.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$15.84/Target: HK$21.70) 1H25: Revenue slightly misses but operating profit beats; expect mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline for 2025. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$19.05/Target: HK$22.60) 1H25: In line; from earnings drag to guidance-driven re-rating; upgrade to BUY. ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$1.60/Target: US$3.40) 2Q25: Net loss widens; recovery expected in 2H25. Maintain...
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