Tencent will report its 1Q26 results on 13 May. We expect Tencent’s revenue growth to remain solid at 11% yoy in 1Q26 despite macro headwinds, supported by resilient gaming (seasonal boost from Chinese New Year and strong evergreen titles) and stable advertising driven by higher ad loads and improved eCPM. Gross profit growth should outpace revenue growth slightly, while operating profit is likely to remain flat due to increased AI-related investment. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK...
Top Stories Company Update | Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$417.20/Target: HK$545.00) We expect HKEX to report a 12% earnings growth in 1Q26, driven by solid turnover growth across the cash, derivatives and commodities markets as well as a red-hot IPO market, but partly offset by a 22% yoy NII decline. Despite macro uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, we remain cautiously optimistic about the headline ADT and earnings outlook, supported by a low HIBOR environment and robust...
Greater China Company Update | Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$417.20/Target: HK$545.00) We expect HKEX to report a 12% earnings growth in 1Q26, driven by solid turnover growth across the cash, derivatives and commodities markets as well as a red-hot IPO market, but partly offset by a 22% yoy NII decline. Despite macro uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions, we remain cautiously optimistic about the headline ADT and earnings outlook, supported by a low HIBOR environment and robus...
Baidu will report its 1Q26 results in mid-May. We project a 3% yoy decline in group revenue, with AI-powered businesses contributing about 50% of total revenue. AI cloud infrastructure will be the key growth driver, offsetting continued weakness in legacy search advertising. Margins are expected to improve on operating efficiency gains. The outlook remains solid, with the Kunlun Chip spinoff on track and continued growth in AI applications and marketing. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of...
Top Stories Sector Update | China Property Mar 26 data showed China’s property sector remains weak despite moderating declines, with investment, sales, and starts still contracting, while Tier 1 cities saw early price stabilisation and a pick-up in April sales driven by policy support and project launches. However, rents and yields remain under pressure, and the sustainability of the recovery is uncertain as policy effects may fade. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, with CR Land preferred for its consisten...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Mar 26 data showed China’s property sector remains weak despite moderating declines, with investment, sales, and starts still contracting, while Tier 1 cities saw early price stabilisation and a pick-up in April sales driven by policy support and project launches. However, rents and yields remain under pressure, and the sustainability of the recovery is uncertain as policy effects may fade. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, with CR Land preferred for its consiste...
JD has guided for sluggish low single-digit top-line growth in 1Q26, slightly improving from 4Q25’s 1.5% yoy growth, but significantly lower than 1Q25’s 15.8% due to a high base last year driven by national subsidies. However, overall profitability is expected to rebound, driven by narrowing losses in the FD segment, resumption of national subsidies, and contributions from ongoing international expansion. Maintain BUY with a raised target price of HK$155.00 (US$40.00).
Top Stories Sector Update | Healthcare The HSHCI rose 11.3%, significantly outperforming the HSI which gained 1.9% from 13 Mar-15 Apr 26. We attribute the healthcare sector’s strong performance primarily to robust 2025 financial results. As a rising pillar industry, biopharmaceuticals have gained strong policy backing to drive future growth and development. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Sector Update | IT Hardware Handset suppliers’ 2H25 results and 2026 guidance are better than feared. Players focused...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare The HSHCI rose 11.3%, significantly outperforming the HSI which gained 1.9% from 13 Mar-15 Apr 26. We attribute the healthcare sector’s strong performance primarily to robust 2025 financial results. As a rising pillar industry, biopharmaceuticals have gained strong policy backing to drive future growth and development. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Sector Update | IT Hardware Handset suppliers’ 2H25 results and 2026 guidance are better than feared. Players...
We expect lacklustre 4QFY26 results with narrowing losses in quick commerce partially offset by softer core commerce growth amid high competition and weaker online retail performance in March. Cloud growth is likely to remain solid and broadly in line with expectations. However, overall profitability may be weighed down by higher-than-expected losses in the “All Others” segment, driven by continued investments in AI and marketing effort. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$192.00 (...
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply Mar 26 money and credit data rebounded sequentially but missed expectations, with new bank loans and TSF at Rmb2.99t and Rmb5.23t respectively. M2 growth eased to 8.5% yoy, while M1 moderated to 5.1% yoy as the Chinese New Year effects faded. New bank loans and TSF both remained below their Mar 25 levels, while outstanding bank loan growth slipped to 5.7% yoy. Overall, credit growth continues to moderate, with underlying demand yet to fully firm. Sector Upd...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply Mar 26 money and credit data rebounded sequentially but missed expectations, with new bank loans and TSF at Rmb2.99t and Rmb5.23t respectively. M2 growth eased to 8.5% yoy, while M1 moderated to 5.1% yoy as the Chinese New Year effects faded. New bank loans and TSF both remained below their Mar 25 levels, while outstanding bank loan growth slipped to 5.7% yoy. Overall, credit growth continues to moderate, with underlying demand yet to fully firm. Sect...
China online retail companies’ 4Q25 revenue and margins were pressured by the high-base effect and the persistently intense on-demand delivery competition, which are likely to ease in 2026, seeing the solid NBS retail data for Jan-Feb 26, and the latest policy. Meanwhile, online gaming and OTA reported resilient 4Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. We expect improving AI monetisation and mixed earnings as AI investmen...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium an...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium a...
4Q25 earnings missed expectations. Total revenue increased 4% yoy to Rmb92b, in line with our and consensus estimates. Non-IFRS net loss totalled Rmb15b, with a net margin loss of 17%, missing consensus estimates. For 1Q26, Meituan expects core local commerce revenue growth to remain flattish or drop slightly, with losses projected to halve sequentially. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of HK$74.00.
Top Stories Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting s...
Greater China Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting ...
PDD’s 4Q25 results are largely in line. Revenue increased 12% yoy to Rmb124b, in line with consensus estimate. Non- GAAP net profit decreased 12% yoy to Rmb27.4b, due to a decline in forex losses and higher-than-expected income tax, thus missing consensus forecast. Non-GAAP net margin expanded 6ppt yoy to 21%. Looking ahead, PDD expects its topline growth and profitability to continue fluctuating due to its merchant support strategy. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$134.00.
Kuaishou’s 4Q25 results are in line with expectations. Revenue increased 12% yoy to Rmb39.6b, slightly better than our and consensus estimates. Gross profit margin expanded 1ppt yoy to 55%. Non-IFRS net profit grew 16% yoy to Rmb5.5b, largely in line with our and consensus forecasts. Management guided a 1Q26 revenue growth of 2.5% while earnings are estimated to drop over 40% yoy to Rmb3b, missing our and consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$82.00.
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