Strategy | People’s Party To Win The Election But Bhumjaithai Party To Win The Government Formation The Bhumjaithai Party is expected to form a coalition government with the Pheu Thai Party. As the election rally has been priced in (+8.2% vs historical average of +6.9%), a key post-election catalyst would be the stability of the new government. External plays are expected to outperform amid a weak domestic outlook and potential delays in government spending. Defensive stocks remain as effective ...
Top Stories Strategy | People’s Party To Win The Election But Bhumjaithai Party To Win The Government Formation The Bhumjaithai Party is expected to form a coalition government with the Pheu Thai Party. As the election rally has been priced in (+8.2% vs historical average of +6.9%), a key post-election catalyst would be the stability of the new government. External plays are expected to outperform amid a weak domestic outlook and potential delays in government spending. Defensive stocks remain a...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Stocks With Undemanding Valuation And A Positive Outlook Our portfolio returns outperformed the market in Jan 26 (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a less positive view on the SET Index as the election rally has already occurred, and we believe there will be more uncertainty after Election Day. We decide to take profit on OR as we expect it to report a disappointing 4Q25 net profit, and add CPN for its positive business outlook with expansion plans.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Stocks With Undemanding Valuation And A Positive Outlook Our portfolio returns outperformed the market in Jan 26 (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a less positive view on the SET Index as the election rally has already occurred, and we believe there will be more uncertainty after Election Day. We decide to take profit on OR as we expect it to report a disappointing 4Q25 net profit, and add CPN for its positive business outlook with expansion plans. Comp...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Strategy | Quantitative Screening: Searching For Cash Flow Generators We screened the SET100 Index for companies generating free cash flow yields above 10%, while also exhibiting relatively high or comparable FCF-to-enterprise value ratios. We view stocks with strong cash flow generation and inexpensive valuations as compelling, as high FCF yields and low leverage support potential share price re-rating through higher dividends, share buybacks, and funding flexibility for M&A. Our top quantitati...
Top Stories Strategy | Quantitative Screening: Searching For Cash Flow Generators We screened the SET100 Index for companies generating free cash flow yields above 10%, while also exhibiting relatively high or comparable FCF-to-enterprise value ratios. We view stocks with strong cash flow generation and inexpensive valuations as compelling, as high FCF yields and low leverage support potential share price re-rating through higher dividends, share buybacks, and funding flexibility for M&A. Our t...
Greater China Sector Update | Hong Kong Property Stronger local discretionary consumption supported positive growth in Hong Kong retail sales in 2H25, while the decline in visitors’ per capita spend moderated. Office rents remained under pressure but showed early signs of stabilisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong landlords. Link REIT remains our top pick despite a lower DPU forecast. We fine-tune Wharf REIC’s earnings and maintain BUY, while upgrading Hysan’s earnings and target price b...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Undemanding Valuation And Not Impact Of Domestic Purchasing Power Our portfolio returns outperformed the market (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a neutral view on the SET Index, although the market may gain positive momentum from the election period. However, the market may be pressured by weak domestic purchasing power. We decided to add PTTEP and PTTGC to our portfolio as their share prices are still undemanding and their performances are not impacted by domestic ...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Undemanding Valuation And Not Impact Of Domestic Purchasing Power Our portfolio returns outperformed the market (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a neutral view on the SET Index, although the market may gain positive momentum from the election period. However, the market may be pressured by weak domestic purchasing power. We decided to add PTTEP and PTTGC to our portfolio as their share prices are still undemanding and their performances are not impacted...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Strategy | Entering Pre-Election Rally Period House dissolution is expected to still take place in late-Jan 26. Note that an earlier dissolution will not impact our positive 1H26 view. Domestic-oriented sectors tend to outperform during an election period; hence, an optimal strategy is to buy these sectors three months before election day, and then take profit one month after. Our top picks are AOT, BGRIM, CENTEL, CPALL, GLOBAL, GULF, KBANK, KTC, MINT and TFG.
Top Stories Strategy | Entering Pre-Election Rally Period House dissolution is expected to still take place in late-Jan 26. Note that an earlier dissolution will not impact our positive 1H26 view. Domestic-oriented sectors tend to outperform during an election period; hence, an optimal strategy is to buy these sectors three months before election day, and then take profit one month after. Our top picks are AOT, BGRIM, CENTEL, CPALL, GLOBAL, GULF, KBANK, KTC, MINT and TFG.
Strategy | Feedback From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur The KL roadshow focused on the 1H26 Thai equity outlook, highlighting an improving economic momentum, political stability, and strong FDI as key catalysts. Investors were positive on tourism, banking and healthcare, with high interest in politics (Mar 26 election outlook). Given the more favourable economic and financial conditions, we maintain a positive view on Thailand’s 1H26 equity outlook, with top picks including AOT, BGRIM,...
Top Stories Strategy | Feedback From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur The KL roadshow focused on the 1H26 Thai equity outlook, highlighting an improving economic momentum, political stability, and strong FDI as key catalysts. Investors were positive on tourism, banking and healthcare, with high interest in politics (Mar 26 election outlook). Given the more favourable economic and financial conditions, we maintain a positive view on Thailand’s 1H26 equity outlook, with top picks includi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Strong 4Q25-1Q26 Earnings Outlook Our portfolio returns underperformed the market by -5.9%, which moved down by 4.0% in November. We see an opportunity to take a position on the Thai equity market as the downside risk will likely be more limited as the election timeline becomes clearer. We add AOT and BDMS to our portfolio as their valuations are still undemanding with strong earnings outlooks for 4Q25-1Q26.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Strong 4Q25-1Q26 Earnings Outlook Our portfolio returns underperformed the market by -5.9%, which moved down by 4.0% in November. We see an opportunity to take a position on the Thai equity market as the downside risk will likely be more limited as the election timeline becomes clearer. We add AOT and BDMS to our portfolio as their valuations are still undemanding with strong earnings outlooks for 4Q25-1Q26.
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