GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
INDONESIA Results Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ/BUY/Rp6,375/Target: Rp11,000) 4Q23: Ahead of consensus expectation. Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/HOLD/Rp2,280/Target: Rp2,500) 4Q23: Bottom line still weak but outlook remains prospective; results below expectations. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Feb 24 loans growth ticks up by 1bp to 5.8%. However, leading growth indicators weaken. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT in the absence of strong earnings catalysts. Update VS Industry (VSI MK/BUY/RM0.88/Target: R...
In Mar 24, our Alpha Picks underperformed the market (-0.7% vs 0.5%) and the global market focused on the central bank’s rate cut decision. The SET index increased 0.5% in Mar 24. For Apr 24, our picks are ADVANC, BSRC, BTG, CPALL, CPF, EA, ERW, MAJOR, TFG and TIDLOR.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Apr 24 Portfolio Stick with beneficiaries of a weakening Thai baht and beneficiaries of a lower policy rate. Cut losses on EGCO, Add TIDLOR and TFG. Update Thai Union Group (TU TB/BUY/Bt14.50/Target: Bt20.00) Unexciting 1Q24 earnings as previously expected, but to improve in 2Q24.
Earnings in 4Q23 were quite weak. Stock under our coverage reported aggregate net profit of Bt678.997m in 2023 (vs our estimate of Bt730.176m), declining 9.5% yoy. The poor earnings were pressured by energy, petrochemical and consumer staples (food), while positive earnings were seen in retail and healthcare. Given the strong international tourists arrival driven by Chinese tourists, we see the services sector (tourism and healthcare) maintaining its momentum.
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: ICL: Twin giants continue to stay ahead of the competition. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$89.20/Target: HK$116.00): 4Q23: Earnings beat; US$3b buyback plan. Vague visibility on 2024 outlook and 3P monetisation. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp414/Target: Rp550): 22% yoy net profit growth partly supported by better store productivity. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas: Petronas’ OTC Asia 2024 is a successful platform for innovation and ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI A mixed bag, weakness persists. Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24 Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. Results Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ/HOLD/Rp1,225/Target: Rp1,200) 4Q23: High return rate caused 38.9% yoy decline in NPAT. Downgrade to HOLD. PP London Sumatra...
Our Alpha Picks underperformed the market (-1.9% vs +0.5%) in Feb 24. In Mar 24, the global market will focus on listed companies’ 4Q23 earnings results. The SET index increased 0.5% in Feb 24. For Mar 24, our picks are ADVANC, BSRC, CPALL, CPF, EA, EGCO, ERW, MAJOR and BTG.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Mar 24 Portfolio Stick with tourism and beneficiaries of a weakening Thai baht. Switch TU to BTG. Results Srisawad Corporation (SAWAD TB/HOLD/Bt37.50/Target: Bt42.00) 4Q23: Results in line; deterioration in asset quality but aligned with guidance. Upgrade to HOLD with an unchanged target price of Bt42.00.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: We remain hedged, adding COSCO Shipping Holdings and Foxconn Industrial Internet to our BUY list, but include additional SELL calls on Li Auto and Xpeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again trounced the KLCI in Jan 24 (+9.6% vs +4.0%). Feb 24 pic...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: PMI bounces back; not out of the woods yet. Update Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$103.40/Target: HK$135.00): 4Q23 results preview: AIGC monetisation to foster ads and AI Cloud. PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK/HOLD/HK$9.72/Target: HK$10.00): Sunshine after the rain. INDONESIA Update Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ/BUY/Rp2,690/Target: Rp3,000): 2023 preliminary results, mid-teens earnings growth in 2024. SINGAPORE Results CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP/BUY/S$1...
Our Alpha Picks outperformed the market but both were still negative (-2.3% vs -3.6%) in Jan 24. In Jan 24, the global market adjusted its expectation of lower interest rates by Mar 23 with earnings results being released in the US. The SET index dropped 3.6% in Jan 24. For Feb 24, our picks are ADVANC, BSRC, CPALL, CPF, EA, EGCO, ERW, MAJOR and TU.
Thailand’s economy is projected to grow 2.4% and 3.2% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, with a more balanced economic growth amid a soft landing in the US and recession in China. We favour quality stocks with strong cash flows and low debts given the high interest rates currently. We recommend selective buying in the retail, industrial estate and utilities sectors. Our top picks are ADVANC, BDMS, BSRC, EA, EGCO, MAJOR, PTT, SCB and TU.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banks ASEAN Banks: quarterly update. Plantation Maintain 2024 CPO ASP at RM4,200/tonne, with pricing expected to be higher in 1H24. Accumulate Malaysia upstream players and companies with better-than-peers production growth. Strategy A Disinflation Rally From Late-23 To Early-24 Followed By Potential Market Deterioration Economy likely to see more balanced economic growth. We favour retail, industrial estate and utilities. Top picks: ADVANC, BDMS, BSRC, EA, EGCO, MAJOR...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: We add the potential beneficiaries of the upcoming CNY festival − Galaxy Entertainment and Trip.com − to our BUY list, but include SELL calls on BYD and Geely due to the subsidy reduction. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in 4Q23 and 2023: Our picks are MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, TLKM, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Domestic Event Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the KLCI in Dec 23. Jan 24 pick...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: December PMI sees general weakness, but FAI improves. Sector Internet: Softening tone from regulatory authority on online game industry. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$15.60/Target: HK$21.60): Takeaways from Xiaomi’s EV event. INDONESIA Update Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/SELL/Rp86/Target: Rp75): Market share decline prompted GOTO to strike a deal with TikTok Shop. MALAYSIA Sector Banking: Nov 23 loans growth recovered but leading loans growth indicators have weake...
Our Alpha Picks slightly underperformed the market (2.3% vs 2.6%) in Dec 23. In the same month, the global stock market broadly celebrated a relief rally as the US economic data supported lower inflation and a halt in interest rate hikes, and the SET index moved up 2.2%. For Jan 24, our picks are ADVANC, CPALL, EA, EGCO, MAJOR, SCB, and TU.
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